Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
650 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS MORNING AT THE 500MB LEVEL AN AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS WAS POSITIONED BETWEEN TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS. ONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WERE PLACED
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THEN OTHER UPPER HIGH NOW APPEARING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE FEATURES A DEFORMATION
ZONE/COL WAS LOCATED ACROSS KANSAS ALONG WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
IN THE 550MB-400MB LEVEL. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH +16 TO +17C TEMPERATURES OBSERVED WEST
OF THIS TROUGH. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM DENVER TO EL
PASO. A WEDGE OF 26C TO 28C 850MB TEMPERATURES STRETCHED FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH THESE WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NEW MEXICO. AS THESE SUBTLE FEATURES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
REMAINS AT OR ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH DRY/INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT THAN LATE SATURDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THESE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE SMALL
CIN STILL SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF INSERTING MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN
THE BETTER 600MB-500MB MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER FROM LAST NIGHT APPEARS
TO HAVE HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-8F WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS
OUT SIDE THIS CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL BE LOCATED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ELSEWHERE WILL TREND TOWARDS THE SIGHTLY
COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE MODEL SOUNDINGS MIXED LAYER
TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS. MIXING HEIGHT ON SATURDAY IS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CLOSE TO THE 600MB LEVEL OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BASED ON 00Z SUNDAY TEMPERATURES AT THESE LEVELS THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 100 TO NEAR 105 DEGREES. THESE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS/NAM ARE OVERDOING QPF AS INSPECTING FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS MID LEVEL. BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SLIGHT
POPS DURING THE EVENING BUT PREFERRED THE DRIER SOLUTION FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CONCERNED, MAINLY STUCK WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS MODEL SHOWS PROMINENT 500 HPA RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. EVEN THE
NORMALLY WET GFS IS FAIRLY DRY WITH CONVECTION MAINLY LOCATED ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 HPA HIGH (I.E. WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA).
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S DEG F, PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RELIEF IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH THE DROUGHT LIKELY TO WORSEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 641 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RETREAT BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH A CONTINUATION OF
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72 101  73 100 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  76 102  73 100 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  75 102  71 100 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  74 104  72 100 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  76 101  75 101 /  10  20  20  10
P28  75 102  75 102 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-010145-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 /740 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WEST
OF A DIGHTON TO GARDEN CITY TO HUGOTON LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM MIGHT PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE HIGH HEAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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