Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 16, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

RATHER NEBULOUS MCS COVERING MOST OF SW KS CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ESE INTO
BROAD AXIS OF ~70F DWPTS ORIENTED GENERALLY IN W-E MANNER ACRS SRN KS
THAT IS NO DOUBT AIDING IN SUSTAINING THE MCS. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS TOPS
HOLDING STEADY IN -65 TO -70C RANGE. OVER NRN KS & SRN NEBRASKA LESSER
ORGANIZED TSRA CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY E ALONG NOSE "BROAD" LLJ AXIS.

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE TSRA-RELATED.

THIS MORNING:
PER "SYNOPSIS" THE AFORE-MENTIONED MCS SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH
TO WARRANT 50-60% POP ASSIGNMENT TO SC KS TIL 10AM. THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS
MCS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A 2ND REASON: ITS ELY PROGRESS
WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON LWR-DECK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO SUSTAIN TSRA MOVG
E ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEBRASKA. THE NRN CONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE HOLDING
TOGETHER AS THE MCS "ATTEMPTS" TO INTERCEPT THE LWR-DECK FUEL. ALTHOUGH
THE MCS SHOULD CERTAINLY WIN OUT IN TERMS OF LONGEVITY I CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA FURTHER N BEING ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO AFFECT CNTRL KS THIS MORNING. AS SUCH HAVE ASSIGNED ~45% POPS TO
CNTRL KS TIL 10AM ALTHOUGH QPFS WILL BE LOWER.

THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT:
TSRA WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF KS AS A WEAK MID
LVL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS E ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST THAT'LL DRAG A COLD FRONT
SE ACROSS NW KS. WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHEARING AS IT MERGES WITH A FILLING
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-UPR TROF LIFTING OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY THE FRONT
WILL DECELERATE (& POSSIBLY STALL) IN A MORE W-E ORIENTATION AS IT SAGS
FURTHER INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT. TSRA TO GREATLY INCREASE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE AFTERNOON & EVENING PROGRESS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE BUT AIRMASS WILL GREATLY DESTABILIZE
WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4500J/KG LIKELY OVER NEARLY ALL OF KICT COUNTRY
THIS AFETRNOON. WITH HIGH OCTANE FUEL POOLING ALONG/AROUND THE FRONT AS
EVIDINCED BY PW'S OF 150-200% ++RA ARE A CERTAINTY. AS SUCH WILL MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HWO ALONG WITH THE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

SUN & SUN NGT:
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN MORNING AS NWRN PLAINS SFC TROFFING ENSUES
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING BUT VERY WEAK MID-LVL SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD REMOVE THE LWR-DECK FOCUS NECESSARY TO
SUPPORT STRONG TSRA BUT HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF -TSRA IN
THE EVENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SAT NGT'S COVNECTION SHOULD INTERACT
TO 'SPARK' A FEW TSRA.

NEXT WEEK:
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...WITH HOT & DRY WEATHER
FOR ALL AREAS TIL WED NGT...WHEN AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE SCOOTING E/NE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SWEEPA COLD FRONT SE TOWARD KS. CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR SE THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS IS AVERAGE AT BEST BUT DO BELIEVE
TSRA CHANCES FOR THU ARE A BIT HIGH AT THIS TIME AS APPEARS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE KS/NEBRASKA BORDER THU AFTERNOON &
EVENING. AS SUCH DID EASE UP ON POP THROTTLE FOR WED NGT & SLIGHTLY THU
FOR THIS REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN CONCERN: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD GRAZE CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
MENTION AT RSL AND HUT. A ROUND OF ORGANIZED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY ALONG A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...BEGINNING IN CENTRAL KS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN KS SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST TAF SITES COULD BE
AFFECTED BY THIS MCS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  71  92  73 /  50  60  20  10
HUTCHINSON      90  70  92  73 /  60  60  10  10
NEWTON          89  70  90  73 /  50  60  20  10
ELDORADO        91  70  90  72 /  50  60  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  71  92  72 /  50  50  20  10
RUSSELL         87  69  93  74 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  70  92  74 /  60  60  10  10
SALINA          88  70  94  74 /  60  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       88  70  92  73 /  60  60  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  71  91  71 /  30  50  20  10
CHANUTE         92  69  91  71 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            91  69  90  71 /  40  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    93  71  91  71 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
431 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170945-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
431 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE THREE QUARTER INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
ALL AREAS AS A COLD FRONT DECELERATES AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING INTO A
DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT. WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINS HAVING OCCURRED THE PAST 2 NIGHTS THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS
INCREASING. AS SUCH ONE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERITY...ARE STILL SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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