S. Drought Monitor for the first time since at least 2003, thanks to a pronounced drying and warming trend over the past few months.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
In mid-to-late June, this six-county portion of North Central Kansas received a widespread severe drought (category D2) designation from the U.S. Drought Monitor for the first time since at least 2003, thanks to a pronounced drying and warming trend over the past few months. This onset of severe drought represented a notable degradation in conditions since early May, when the entire area was free of all drought categories. Looking back a few months prior to the onset of drought, a fairly wet April helped mitigate the impact of a rather dry March. As a result, the period from May into early June would prove critical as to whether drought would develop. Unfortunately, the combined months of May and June subsequently yielded no more than 15-35% of normal precipitation across most of the area. This pronounced lack of rainfall, working in tandem with temperatures averaging 4-6 degrees above normal over these two months, led to the rapid onset of a flash drought situation. The month of May was particularly dry, and for several sites marked the 2nd or 3rd-driest May on record and the driest since 1966. During May, much of the area tallied no more than 5-15% of normal rainfall, including paltry monthly totals of 0.01-inch at Natoma, 0.09 at Cawker City and 0.12 near Alton. Fueling the increasingly critical drought situation, the final week of June marked the start of a notable 10-14 day stretch of very hot weather that lasted into early July. In fact, cooperative observer sites in or near the communities of Alton, Beloit and Plainville reached at least 100 degrees on each of the last seven days of June, with Alton exceeding 110 degrees on four of those days. Shortly after June ended, the USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Report indicated that topsoil moisture across the north central district was 85 percent short to very short and subsoil moisture was 80 percent short to very short. For the state as a whole, topsoil moisture was the driest since 2003, and 71% of range and pasture land was in poor to very poor condition.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 11, 10:45 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1145 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS BY KGRI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY...AND ALLOW WINDS TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY AT 12-15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/ AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VERY LIGHT FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...THINGS HAVE BEEN PLEASANT AND PRECIPITATION FREE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL PROFILER DATA SHOW LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST NEAR THE MN/CAN BORDER...WITH W/NWRLY FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE CWA SITS WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO NRN TX. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT /ESP EARLIER IN THE DAY/ AND INCREASED MIXING /THANKS ALSO TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE/ HAS RESULTED IN NWRLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY PART OF THE CWA SEES PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MID MORNING OR SO TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE ISNT ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS DO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING...DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE AXIS OF THE LLJ AND INCREASED MID LEVEL WARM AIR/THETAE ADVECTION. WHERE THE QUESTION LIES IS WHERE IT SETS UP AND HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GET INTO OUR CWA...IF AT ALL. EVEN WITH IT THIS CLOSE IN TIME...THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE LOCATION. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND PUT IN SOME VERY LOW POPS JUST ACROSS THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CWA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT IT...BUT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS BRINGING THINGS IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA...COULDNT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. IF IT OCCURS...EXPECTING IT WOULD AMOUNT TO A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. ITS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME POPS MAY BE NEEDED A TOUCH FURTHER EAST...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP THE AREA SMALL. LOOKING AT THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THAT ACTIVITY...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS THE SFC PATTERN GOES...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BY 12Z TOMORROW THE HIGH LOOKS TO BE LINED UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE MO RIVER. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WILL SEE STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WHICH COULD AGAIN BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE - ESP ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. DONT SEE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH AND MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. DID TREND BACK DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD ENDS...SO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS TO ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THERE IS LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH MEANS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CHECK IN ABOVE NORMAL NEARLY EVERY DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WARMER READINGS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY...WILL MAKE THIS TIME FRAME CLIMATOLOGICALLY FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN JUNE. GETTING BACK TO RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES...THIS FORECAST PATTERN IS FRUSTRATING IN THE SENSE THAT WE ALMOST HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY AND NIGHT...BUT KNOWING FULL WELL THAT IN SEVERAL OF THESE PERIODS DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL. THAT BEING SAID...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOMEWHERE IN THIS 6-DAY PERIOD...AT LEAST 1 OR 2 LEGITIMATE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN EXCESS OF 0.50-INCH SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY HELPING TO AT LEAST APPLY A BAND-AID TO THE BUILDING DROUGHT SITUATION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS AS MUCH AS ONE WOULD DARE TO IN THIS VERY TRICKY PATTERN...AND STARTING WITH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SPLIT THE NIGHT PERIOD INTO TWO 6-HOUR BLOCKS FOR POPS...LEAVING ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA FREE OF THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES AREA-WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS THE MAIN STORY...WITH TYPICAL...LOW AMPLITUDE...SUMMERTIME DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE CONSENSUS OF SOME...BUT OF COURSE NOT ALL MODELS IS TO DEVELOP A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN WORKING EAST INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...EVEN EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE UP AS THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS AND A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT...AGREE WITH SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK IN AT LEAST TAGGING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ROLLING OUT OF WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING. EVEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...SUPPOSE A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAILERS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 GIVEN THE 18Z NAM DEPICTION OF 500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30+KT OF DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUSPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF ANY OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...BUT NONETHELESS KEPT 20 POPS GOING CWA-WIDE MAINLY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...IN CASE THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE CAN GET ANY STORMS GOING IN THE PRESENCE OF 2500+ J/KG SBCAPE PER THE 18Z NAM. AGAIN...IF STORMS CAN FIRE...SEVERE IS A POSSIBILITY PER THE SEE TEXT ON THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDED SLIGHT POPS TO THE ENTIRE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS. GETTING BACK TO THE DAYTIME HOURS...IT WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH CWA-WIDE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EASILY 15-20 MPH. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPANDED SLIGHT POPS TO ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND NUDGED UP NIGHT POPS A BIT TO 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES. BY THIS TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS NOT OVERLY HIGH...AND SOME OF THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY VALUES OF THE YEAR SO FAR ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING UP INTO THE MID 60S...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY STRONG. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SAME OLD STORY CONTINUES WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER WIND SHEAR...WITH MORE OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY VERY POSSIBLE. RAISED POPS INTO 30-40 PERCENT RANGE CWA-WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE...BUT DID PULL MOST KS ZONES OUT OF THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS PER ALLBLEND MODEL CONSENSUS. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF 20-30 PERCENT STORM CHANCES...AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ADVERTISE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED/AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL TROUGH CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST CONUS. AGAIN THOUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR A HIGH-END SEVERE THREAT. FINALLY FOR MONDAY...KEPT CHANCE POPS INTACT AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS START TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE ON THE BIG PICTURE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS STILL WELL WEST OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE WISE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...KEPT NEARLY ALL PERIODS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY SUMMERY...WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S IF NOT LOW 70S HERE OR THERE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WERE RAISED A SOLID 3-5 DEGREES IN NEBRASKA ZONES...AND 2-3 DEGREES IN KS. THESE HIGHS MAY NOT EVEN BEEN RAISED ENOUGH...WITH LATEST 18Z NAM DEPICTING POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S IN KS ZONES AND FURNAS COUNTY AREA. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 327 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 121200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 327 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SUMNER...TO LOOMIS...TO ALMA. SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA. IN GENERAL...THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR PERIODIC STORMS. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO ALMA NEBRASKA. BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND MONDAY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE DETAILS REGARDING A SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) ADO/PFANNKUCH
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor revealed that conditions reached level D2 drought (severe) or worse during this period.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 387217, 387593, 387601, 387602, 387603, 387604.