Drought in Hawaii, September 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
750 PM HST FRI AUG 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE TRADE WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADES WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT.
THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD
OVER THE ISLANDS...ADDING MORE STABILITY TO THE AIR MASS OVER THE
ISLANDS. THIS IN TURN...WILL KNOCK OFF A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN GETTING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...AND
REDUCING A BIT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS. THE GFS SHOWS THE
MARINE LAYER LOWERING FROM 12 THOUSAND FEET TO 6 TO 8 THOUSAND...AND
STAY AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING THE ISLANDS A NICE COOL BREEZE
IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE HIGH IS IN
THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING...A PROCESS THAT WILL BE COMPLETED BY
TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES IS ALREADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG AND WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE THREE
DAY WEEKEND. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND. BUT AS THE HIGH BECOMES STRONGER...WE MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THE SCA TO OTHER WATERS. WE WILL NOT COMMIT NOW...WE HAVE A
FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THE MODELS ARE TRENDING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT 1034 MILLIBAR BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI. THE CIRRUS IS MOSTLY TRANSPARENT OR THIN. THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...NONE DENSE ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE DAYTIME SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL
BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. LOW LEVEL TURB
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. THUS NO AIRMET TANGO FOR NOW
UNLESS WE SEE A TREND UPWARD BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL FADE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FOR
BEYOND THIS...ONLY SMALL MID-PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED
OFF THE SOUTHERN HEMI TRADE BELT. THE NORTH PACIFIC IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF LIFE. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A FEW GALE FORCE
LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL BEGINNING AROUND THE 6TH.

AS NOTED ABOVE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WINDIER AREAS...WATERS AROUND MAUI...MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND. THE SCA IS GOOD UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY. THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED...AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE...THE
AREAS TO THE SCA EXPANDED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

LAU