Drought in Hawaii, November 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
829 PM HST WED OCT 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL CAUSE OUR TRADE
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LAND AND
SEA BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADE WIND WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY LIES
ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI PLACING THE ISLANDS IN A LIGHT TRADE
WIND REGIME. MOISTURE LEVEL ACROSS THE STATE ARE DRIER THAN NORMAL
AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM UPSTREAM OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS STATEWIDE. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL STAY OVER HAWAII
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS DURING
THE DAYTIME...WITH CLEARING AT NIGHT AS THE LAND BREEZES SET IN.
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL KEEP ANY
DAYTIME SHOWERS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ALSO...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING VOLCANIC HAZE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO FORECAST AGREEMENT IN THE LONG-
TERM. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MARCH EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE SETS UP
OVER HAWAII THIS WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KAUAI LATE SUNDAY. THE RIDGE PARKED OVER
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BUILD
BACK IN LATE MONDAY...BUT IT PROBABLY WON/T BE TOO NOTICEABLE UNTIL
TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA PATTERN WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO CARRY IN WITH THE TRADES. VOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER
THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF SMALL NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND SOUTH SWELLS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHTS
REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A LARGER NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...KINEL