Wildfire in Hawaii, May 29 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
RAINFALL TOTALS LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE AND A LOW TO THE WEST...WITH A RIDGE JUST TO OUR NORTH. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS RANGING FROM 6KFT AT
LIHUE TO TO 8KFT AT HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ALSO RANGE FROM 0.8
INCHES AT LIHUE TO 1.0 INCHES AT HILO...WHICH ARE BOTH BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE MORNING AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING TIME. SINCE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS LOCATED BELOW THE INVERSION...THIS DRYING MAY BE A SIGN
OF A LOWERING INVERSION. 19Z ACARS ASCENT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HONOLULU
AND KAHULUI SHOW INVERSION NEAR 5-6KFT.

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
STATE...MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS. SURFACE PRESSURES
AT AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOY 51000
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE AND BUOY 51002 SOUTH OF THE STATE HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. AREAS OF CLOUDS EXTEND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
WHILE THESE CLOUDS ARE MORE STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS...THEY WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST STATIONS
RECEIVED LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AREA...THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS AS WELL.

THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL DEVELOP INTO A
LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
SURFACE HIGH NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL BUILD EASTWARD...
LEAVING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK...AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE SHOWERY
CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE AND WE SEE AN INCREASE IN
850-700MB MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME DRYING/STABILIZING DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING US BACK TO
NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY AS WINDS
DIMINISH...THE SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS. FOR THE WINDIER AREAS...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TRADE WIND SWELL THAT HAS BEEN GENERATED BY THE
STRONG AND PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
EXPOSED EAST FACING SHORES TODAY...BRINGING SURF ABOVE THE ADVISORY
LEVEL OF 8 FEET FOR EAST FACING SHORES. COMBINED SEAS AT THE MOKAPU
BUOY HAVE SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE PAUWELA AND
HILO BUOYS HAVE BEEN MORE STEADY. 12Z WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEAS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...AIRMET TANGO
CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ISOL SEVERE TURBULENCE
IN THE AIR SPACE BELOW 8 KFT LEEWARD OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL
ISLANDS. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH
MID-WEEK...SO EXPECT AIRMET TANGO TO CONTINUE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VIS AS LOW CLD AND -SHRA CARRIED BY THE TRADES
AFFECT SOME WINDWARD TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG
ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...POWELL