High Surf in Hawaii, March 5 to 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON MAR 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT WEST OF THE STATE WILL INDUCE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THEN. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST
EAST OF KAUAI. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS FOR KAUAI ON THE BACK
SIDE...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE OTHER ISLANDS. THE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AND SO WILL THE WINDS. TRADE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH MOVES TO FAR NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW AROUND 900 MILES NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
WITH THE AXIS RUNNING ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST OF KAUAI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS CREATING AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
ALL OF THE SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH AN AXIS BISECTING THE KAUAI CHANNEL.
AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AT LIHUE SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES...MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS THIS HIGH IN ADDITION TO THESE UPWARD
FORCING MECHANISMS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERATE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR KAUAI...NIIHAU AND SURROUNDING WATERS AROUND KAUAI
THROUGH 1000 PM HST TONIGHT...PLEASE SEE OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS AND REASONING.

IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST AND A WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU...DUE
TO THE RAIN OCCURING SINCE SUNDAY.

AS MENTIONED...THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL
WHICH IS CREATING A SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION BOUNDARY.
WINDS ARE NORTHEASTERLY AND VERY STRONG OVER KAUAI ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONG WINDS ARE ACTUALLY DRIVEN BY A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. ON THE
EASTERN SIDE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO VARIABLE WINDS COVER THE REMAINING
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS OVER KAUAI SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW MORNING...A WIND ADVISORY GOES THROUGH
THEN. BRIEF  GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR ALONG GUST FRONTS AHEAD
OF SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD FLARE UP ON
THE ISLAND INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN GIVEN
THE GENERAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE STATE. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION TIME. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL ADVANCE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...ENERGY FROM THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
FINALLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND THE ISLANDS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS ON WINDWARD SLOPES...WITH
OCCASIONAL PASSING LEEWARD SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY WILL BECOME MORE STABLE BY THURSDAY.

A NEW HIGH WILL BUILD FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS BY THE
WEEKEND...PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES FOR THE STATE. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS... AS NO GAPS IS
STILL HINTING A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND WHILE
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS NOW HAVE TRADE WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SIGMET FOR CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE BETWEEN
23N AND 30N LATITUDES WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOPS UP TO 48000 FEET.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH TOPS MOSTLY BETWEEN 30000
AND 35000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF WARNING CONTINUES FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU... MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AS THE LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURF
HEIGHTS WILL REACH LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH CAUSING LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG EXPOSED EAST FACING SHORES. THE NORTH FACING
SHORES...AND LOCALLY WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND KAUAI AND
OAHU...AS WELL AS WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA COASTAL WATER ZONES TODAY
WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALMOST ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO
THE ELEVATED SEAS AND/OR WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND RIVER AND STREAM GAGES ARE RUNNING HIGH
FROM THE HEAVY RAINS SINCE SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY KAUAI AND OAHU.
EXPECTING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 PM HST TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KAUAI HONOLULU AND MAUI COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AROUND THE
STATE...PLEASE SEE OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII FOR THE
LATEST AND SPECIFIC INFORMATION FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU
MOLOKAI LANAI KAHOOLAWE AND MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU AND KAUAI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND FOR THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF
OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI..

HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI OAHU MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FOR KAUAI CHANNEL AND
WATERS AROUND KAUAI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL OTHER HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...FOSTER
AVIATION...FUJII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
213 PM HST MON MAR 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WNW WAILUA            22.07N 159.37W
03/05/2012                   KAUAI IN KAUAI     HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            KAMALU ROAD CLOSED NEAR WAILUA HOMESTEADS PARK.

0127 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KAPAA                   22.10N 159.35W
03/05/2012                   KAUAI IN KAUAI     HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OLOHENA ROAD CLOSED AT BRIDGE NEAR KAPAA MIDDLE SCHOOL.

&&

KODAMA