High Surf in Hawaii, July 4 to 6, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED JUL 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STRENGTHENING A LITTLE BIT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER
CONDITIONS...THEN FILLING BACK AGAIN TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS ON WINDWARD SIDES OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNINGS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE. THE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE
ATMOSPHERE STABLE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE WILL BUILD A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THE INCREASED GRADIENT OVER
HAWAII WILL ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO FRESH / LOCALLY STRONG FROM
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY THE HIGH IS DRIVING FRESH TRADE WIND
BREEZES ACROSS THE STATE. SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE AT 8000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES.

TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PERSISTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST OVER MOST OF THE
STATE...AND PRIMARILY IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. THESE
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
CLOUD TOPS WARM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THIS DIURNAL PATTERN AND
AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH NEAR
NORMAL CHANCES. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS
DEPICT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING IN.

SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AND
OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TRADE
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
OCCASIONALLY SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PREVAILING FLYING COND IS VFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
THE FREQUENCY OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED BY MID MORNING OR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE WEAKER...IN THE MODERATE RANGE. HENCE...NO AIRMET TANGO.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CEILINGS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE
WINDS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS. AS
THE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK...THE SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO ADDITIONAL ZONES /AS WELL AS EXTENDED IN
TIME/.

THE SOUTH SWELL HAS ARRIVED BUT THE HIGH ENERGY CONTRIBUTION AT
BARBER/S POINT AND LANAI ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. BUOY 51003 IS STILL SHOWING SWELL HEIGHTS IN THE 5
FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST IN THE 5
TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WIND SWELL WILL PICK UP DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TRADES INCREASE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...LAU