Wildfire in Hawaii, July 14 to 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1115 PM HST FRI JUL 13 2012

.UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY STATEWIDE GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER PASS. EXPECTING WINDS TO ONLY DROP OFF SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...SO EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAS TO
INCLUDE THE KAIWI CHANNEL AND EASTWARD THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TRADES WILL DELIVER
PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...MAINLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 834 PM HST FRI JUL 13 2012/

A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL MARKS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT USED TO BE TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIEL...WITH THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG
ISLAND...MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS.
THE INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DANIEL REMNANT
LOW IS LEADING TO THE ACCELERATED WINDS...MOSTLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. THIS IS COINCIDING WITH THE LOW CENTER
AT IT/S CLOSEST DISTANCE TO THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK AWAY FROM HAWAII.

THE BULK OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
WITHIN 250 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND IS BARELY BRUSHING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS VERY
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR USERS SHOULD
NOTE THAT RADAR ECHOES OVER LEEWARD WATERS WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND
ARE FROM NON-PRECIPITATION SOURCES. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW COOL CLOUD TOPS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH
POINT INDICATIVE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THIS SHOULD
POSE NO THREAT TO HAWAII GIVEN THE CURRENT WESTERLY TRACK. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL WILL PASS SOUTH OF ALL ISLANDS INTO
SATURDAY. IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS...STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
PREVAIL...WITH A FEW SHOWERY CUMULUS EMBEDDED. AT BEST...ISOLATED
WINDWARD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS DIURNAL EFFECTS SET IN.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST TO STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 1037
MB AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DRIFT
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT DANIEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST AND DISSIPATE THIS WEEKEND...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
OF A PLAYER IN ISLAND WEATHER.

TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST LINGERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
WEST...TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.

PASSING TRADE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THE EAST PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST ON A PATH VERY SIMILAR TO DANIEL... WITH
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WEAKENING EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON SUNDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA/S REMNANT SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS IT PASSES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF EMILIA
IS DEPICTED AS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN THE TRADE FLOW AROUND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES...AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM ALL FOUR RADARS HAVE SHOWN 25 TO 30 KTS WINDS AT
TIME...FURTHER ENFORCING THE NEED FOR AIRMET TANGO.

WINDWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF CLOUDS IS NOTED UPSTREAM OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD PORTIONS
OF THOSE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ELEVATED SEAS AND SURF ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEAR TO BE
STILL BE PEAKING AT THE HILO BUOY THIS EVENING. A LOW ENERGY...LONGER
PERIOD...EAST SWELL FROM EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD STATEWIDE
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN DUE TO THE INCREASED SHORT PERIOD CHOP DUE TO THE
INCREASED TRADES. THE SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS RECENTLY
UPDATED AND CONTAINS ADDITIONAL DETAILS. TH

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDIER ZONES
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...AND FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WATERS...DUE
TO EITHER WINDS OR SEAS EXCEEDING CRITERIA. SCA FOR WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND AS WELL AS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SATURDAY IF THE HILO BUOY CONTINUES TO SEAS EXCEEDING 10
FEET...AS THE EASTERLY SWELL FROM DANIEL DROPS AND THE SMALLER BUT
HIGHER PERIOD SWELL FROM EMILIA BUILDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH BIG ISLAND-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

FOSTER