High Surf in Hawaii, February 27 to 29, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 AM HST MON FEB 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW HISTORY. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BACK...AND WILL REMAIN
WITH US THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS BEING BLOWN IN BY THE
TRADES WILL FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DRIFT DOWNWIND INTO THE LEEWARD COMMUNITIES. THE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME WEAKER TOWARDS
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 2 AM HST RAOB SOUNDING FROM LIHUE KAUAI IS ENCOURAGING. THE
SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD WARMING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET...THUS
SETTING UP A CAP AT 5000 FEET. ALSO...THE TRADE WIND CONTINUES TO
BUILD WEST ACROSS KAUAI THIS HOUR AND IS NOTED BY THE 2 MILLIBAR
RISE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DURING THE PAST TWENTY 24 HOURS. SO THE
BLOB OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
SOURCE OF MOISTURE FOR THE HEAVY WEATHER...NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING
AWAY...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING TRADES. ALSO...THE CONDITION OF
THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED SOME. THE ISLAND HAS NOT HAD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINS SINCE NOON SUNDAY. WITH THIS SAID...WE HAVE
DECIDED TO CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /FFA/ FOR KAUAI. THIS
CANCELLATION ALSO INCLUDE OAHU...WHICH HAD SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NO WHERE CLOSE TO WHAT KAUAI TOOK
IN.

THE CULPRIT OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA
640 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHERE IT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
...BUT NOT DISSIPATE...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ITS PRESENCE WILL
STILL BE FELT HERE WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OF EAST WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS POINTS TO DENSE HIGH CLOUDS TO CROSS
THE ISLANDS SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINNING OUT. THIS MAY BE
AN OVERKILL FOR THE TIME BEING AND IS NOT PART OF THE FORECAST.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO TODAY/S FORECAST...IS A BAND OF SHOWERS
ADVANCING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WE HAVE GONE SOMEWHAT
PESSIMISTIC WITH SHOWERY TRADES FOR TODAY INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL ABSORB MOST OF THE
SHOWERS BUT THE LEEWARD COMMUNITIES WILL GET A GOOD SHARE OF THEM
AS WELL. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE TRADE SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE MAX TOPS SHOULD BE NO
HIGHER THAN 10000 FEET.

THE BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE EASING OFF OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...AS A NEW FRONT AND THE OLD TROUGH TEAM UP TO CAUSE THE
LIGHTENING OF THE TRADES. THE MODELS DIFFERS LONG RANGE FOR THE
PLACEMENT OF A LOW ALONG A FRONT EITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. LONG STORY SHORT...WE WILL GO WITH THE GENERIC TRADES.

&&

.MARINE...
STATUS  QUO ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT TO 6
AM HST TUESDAY. THE SCA DOES NOT INCLUDE THE LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI
OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY. NO CHANGES TO THE COVERAGE OF SCA.

THE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM HST THIS MORNING
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND...DUE TO A RISING SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL. THIS
ADVISORY IS GOOD UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING...SINCE THE TRADE WINDS HAVE NOT REACH MODERATE TO STRONG
STRENGTH.

WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS SLATED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THIS
MORNING...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE MAJOR ISLANDS. PHTO WILL BE
EXPOSED TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VIS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM 6 AM HST TODAY
TO UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
EXCEPT THE LEEWARD WATERS OF KAUAI OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

&&

LAU