High Surf in Hawaii, February 12 to 14, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AS THE FLOWS TURNS
SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS STAY
WILL BE SHORT WITH MODERATE TRADES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
TRADES WILL THEN KICK IT UP A NOTCH TO MODERATE TO STRONG FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON TOP OF THIS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPTICK IN
TRADE SHOWERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT TRADE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED 900 MILES NORTHEAST OF OAHU. A RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGH...PASSING 330 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI.
A FRONT NEAR THE DATELINE WILL BE PRESSING EASTWARD...BRINGING THE
RIDGE CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AND SHIFTING OUR WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY. THE FRONT
STALLS 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WEDNESDAY AND FALLS APART. THE
RIDGE THEN MOVES NORTH ALLOWING MODERATE TRADES TO RETURN. THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS FURTHER RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES BY
SATURDAY. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENHANCED THE SHOWER MOVING
BENEATH IT...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.
UP TO THIS POINT...A STABLE AIR MASS WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS IN
CHECK...EVEN DURING THE DAYS OF LIGHTER WINDS.

THE VOG RETURNED UNEXPECTEDLY...MOST NOTABLE ON OAHU. THE VOG LIKELY
CAME IN AT 5000 FEET WHERE THE WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY SO WILL THE VOG.

WIND PROFILE FROM THE KAU DISTRICT SHOWS A STRONG EASTERLY WIND
FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 8 THOUSAND FEET. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS TO NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THIS STIFF EASTERLY WIND FLOW WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE MASS OF LOW
CLOUDS THAT EMERGED OUT OF AN AREA OF DENSE LAYERED CLOUDS OFF THE
KAU AND PUNA COAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED THIS AREA DEPOSITING A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAIN OF UP TO
A QUARTER INCH TO THE AREA BETWEEN LAUPAHOEHOE AND GLENWOOD IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS ENDING AT 2 AM HST. THIS MASS OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
DISPERSE AS IT SPREADS WESTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE IS NOW OVER MAUI.
WE ANTICIPATE MOST OF THIS CLOUD TO THIN OUT BY MID MORNING AT THE
EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PREVAILING FLYING CONDITION WILL BE VFR. THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THE WINDS ARE BREEZY THERE ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN
BIG BETWEEN 5 AND 8 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT AN AIRMET TANGO FOR
MODERATE TURBULENCE PARTICULARLY BELOW 10000 FEET FOR THIS MORNING.

WE WOULD REALLY APPRECIATE PILOT REPORTS OF THIS PURPORTED VOG
LAYER...THE HEIGHT AND ANY RESTRICTION TO FLIGHT VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEWEST NORTHWEST SWELL SLATED TO ARRIVE NOW STILL HAS NOT HIT
BUOY 51101 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AS OF 3 AM HST. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
STRONG LOWS IS SLATED TO PASS FAR NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOK FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK.

WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
DUE TO EITHER ABOVE NORMAL SEAS AND OR WINDS. THIS SCA ENDS AT 6 AM
HST MONDAY...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI
OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

&&

LAU