Heat in Georgia, June 29 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
939 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BRINGING A MAJOR
HEAT WAVE TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 940 AM...BUFKIT SOUNDS INDICATE A NOSE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AROUND
20KFT WITH A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE THERE. HENCE...THE SCT-BROKEN
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THAT IS THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN
REGARD TO REACHING THE RECORD TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE
SOUNDINGS LATER IN THE DAY SHOW MUCH MORE ELEVATED CAPE WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR MIXING THROUGH THAT LAYER WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
CLOUDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CIN SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP TREND AND SKY COVER SOMEWHAT...BUT
HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE MAX TEMP FORECAST AND CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF HEAT ADVISORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND HOT UPPER
ANTI-CYCLONE SETTLING OVER THE SE TODAY. IN FACT...THE EARLY
MORNING READINGS ARE SHOWING JUST HOW UNUSUAL THIS AIR MASS IS. SOME
MTN TOP LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
SOURCES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MAX TEMPS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
EASILY EXCEED 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...THE GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY IN
A RANGE FROM 101-106. GUIDANCE BLEND GIVES 104 AT KCLT AND 105 AT
KGSP...WHICH ARE NOT ONLY RECORDS FOR THE DAY BUT ALSO TYING THE ALL
TIME HIGH AT KCLT AND 1 DEGREE SHORT AT KGSP. THE KCLT ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 104 WHICH WAS LAST REACHED ON 10 AUG 2007. THE
ALL TIME HIGH AT GSP IS 106 SET WAY BACK ON 18 JULY 1887. MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE HIGH WITH KAVL TYING THE DAILY RECORD OF 98...
WHICH IS 2 DEGREES SHORT OF THEIR ALL TIME HIGH OF 100 SET ON 21 AUG
1983.

WITH ACTUAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF HUMIDITY TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. THAT SAID...IT LOOKS LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE NWRN UPSTATE AND NE GA WILL MIX OUT ENUF TO KEEP
HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW 105. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE
REST OF THE UPSTATE...NE GA AND THE NC PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE NWLY...MIXING WILL NOT BE VERY DEEP GIVEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INVERSION SETTING UP BETWEEN H85 AND H7. H85
MOISTURE ACTUALLY INCREASES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT UNDER THIS
INVERSION. PAST EXPERIENCE SHOWS DEW POINTS DO NOT BOTTOM OUT WHEN
MIXING INTO A RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER. THEREFORE...WILL EXPAND THE
HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE NWRN PIEDMONT...ALL THE SRN NC PIEDMONT
AND ABBEVILLE AND ELBERT COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF CAPE TODAY...THE LFC IS NEAR 10K FT WITH QUITE A BIT
OF CIN DUE TO THE INVERSION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...BUT THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CIRRUS.

THE ANTI-CYCLONE SHUD KEEP ANY MCS ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...VERY WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG INVERSE LAPSE
RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...A RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY...BUT LLVL THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM. THE 00Z/29
GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES FOR THE 1000 AND 925 MB LEVELS ARE +5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ACRS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR SAT AFTN (WITH 850
MB TEMPS OF 25-27C). THE 00Z MET HAS 106 AT GSP AND 105 AT CLT
(WHICH WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR GSP AND BREAK THE ONE
AT KCLT). I TOOK A BLEND OF THE MOS WITH THE INHERITED FCST...AND
THAT RESULTED IN NOT MUCH CHANGE. IF THESE TEMPS VERIFY...ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES SHUD BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...FCST SNDGS SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CIN OVER THE
MTNS...AS MID LVL TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP AND LLVL MOISTURE INCREASES.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTION CAN FIRE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN SAT AFTN. MOST LIKELY A FEW ISOLD MTN-TOP CONVECTIVE CELLS
IS ALL THAT WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ANOMALOUS AIR MASS.
THE GRADUAL/SUBTLE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY.

FOR SUNDAY...AS MID LVL RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER...A FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
SAG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VLY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. WHILE IT/S POSSIBLE A REMNANT MCS COULD TRACK FROM THE
N/NW AND PROVIDE MORE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO LIMIT HEATING...
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ATTM. IN ANY CASE...THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SNDGS SHOW COMPLETELY UNCAPPED INSTBY IN THE MTNS DURING THE
AFTN...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CIN ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SO I/M OPTING TO
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO SUNDAY/S FCST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS COOLER THAN CURRENT FCST FOR MONDAY...OWING TO
FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL LLVL MOISTURE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PERHAPS GREATER COVERAGE AND EARLIER
INITIATION OF CONVECTION. SO MONDAY MAY OR MAY NOT BE THE FOURTH DAY
OF 100 DEG TEMPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN REACH/EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED POPS IN THE 30S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S
ELSEWHERE IN THE AFTN/EVE AS REMNANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE HIGH
OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
BY TUES AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY IN THE AFTN/EVE AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A BIT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE HEAT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND FCST.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK LEE TROF HAS BROUGHT THE WIND DIRECTION
AROUND TO SW OR WSW EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY...THE LEE
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO BE MORE WNW BY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SC SITES WHERE A
MORE WSW WIND DEVELOPS AS USUAL IN THESE SITUATIONS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NORTH TO CALM THIS EVENING. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE NLY WINDS
WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE CONTINUE THRU THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING AT KAVL INDICATES A LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO WILL INDICATE LLWS UNTIL 14Z WHEN INVERSION LIFTS.

OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL MTN CONVECTION WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SLOWLY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BOTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY FROM READINGS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH FFC...WILL POST A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR STEPHENS THROUGH ELBERT COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JUNE 29TH 98 IN 1936
JUNE 30TH 95 IN 1952
JULY 1ST  96 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  93 IN 1970

GSP
JUNE 29TH 101 IN 1931
JUNE 30TH 100 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1970
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1954

CLT
JUNE 29TH 102 IN 1945
JUNE 30TH 102 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1931

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-057-
     068>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ006>009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK/JOH
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

GAZ018-026-028-300900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>005-
010-300900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>009-011>014-019-300900-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-300900-
ELBERT-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.