Hail in Georgia, April 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING FOR WARM UNSETTLED WEATHER. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...KGSP RADAR IS LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MTNS WHERE RIDGETOP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND DRIFT TO THE EAST. WILL UPDATE THE FCST TO INCREASE THE
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE MTNS BUT NOT EXPAND IT EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH
POORER OUTSIDE THE MTNS. TEMP TRENDS GENERALLY LOOK OKAY. EXPECT
MORE SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MTNS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV/S WILL GRADUALLY HELP TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...LLVL CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS. WHILE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...THERE SHOULD STILL
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN. POPS HAVE BEEN NOTCHED UP
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ADJACENT
FORECAST OFFICES DOING THE SAME. STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST THIS
AFTN...AND BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THE NC ZONES WITH DRIER LLVL AIR IN PLACE.

DOWN ACROSS SC AND NE GA THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE LUCK.
THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE ACROSS SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I FAVOR THE NAM WHICH MAINTAINS
THE IDENTITY OF THE WEAK WEDGE RIDGE OVER WRN GA TDA. THIS WILL
FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE FA FOR THE BEST AFTN AND EVENING COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. STRATO-CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ALSO FILL IN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPSTATE. THE
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC
ZONES AND ERN UPSTATE. THAT/S SOMEWHAT RELATIVE AS TEMPS WILL STILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER
WARM...AND MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN/SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM
FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER (STRONGER)
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE TENN VALLEY
UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW...OWING
MAINLY TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS/WEAK LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME DEGREE OF FORCING...30-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTH NEARER
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND
SHEAR LITTLE MORE THAN RESPECTABLE...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.

BY EARLY THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR. IN FACT...WITH FROPA
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT...MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL (OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL) FOR A
CHANGE. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND RESULTANT IMPROVING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
UPGLIDE OVER DEVELOPING COLD AIR WEDGE SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

RELATIVELY HIGH POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEGREE OF
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FROM THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY LEAVE LINGERING
DEFORMATION ZONE/WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL THEREFORE BE RETAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR A CHANGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME ON
FRIDAY...THEN RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS RAPIDLY MODIFIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DISAGREE IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE/PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND CONSIDERING ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD FORM A BRIEF BROKEN CEILING...BUT CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD BASE IN THE VFR
RANGE. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ANY TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO THIS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES THIS EVENING. WIND WILL COME AROUND MORE TO THE WSW ON
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A PATCH OF LOW MVFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SC THROUGH THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT KGSP/KGMU/KAND THROUGH 20Z
TO 22Z. ONCE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WE SHOULD SEE MUCH DEEPER
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO A CB CLOUD GROUP WAS
INDICATED AFTER 22Z. KAVL WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE ACTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BALSAMS AND
SMOKIES ARE DRIFTING TOWARD THE FR BROAD VALLEY. AN AMENDMENT MIGHT
BE NECESSARY BY 19Z. KHKY WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...BUT WITH CLOUDS
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING AROUND 040. THE CONVECTION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
KAVL WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW FOR DENSE FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT IMPEDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN AT
THE TAF SITE MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW MOISTURE AND COOL IT OFF
ENOUGH THAT FOG WOULD DEVELOP ANYWAY. THE FOG WAS TAKEN OUT FOR THIS
ISSUANCE BUT IT IS EQUALLY LIKELY TO BE PUT BACK IF THERE IS MORE OF
AN INDICATION THAT IT WILL CLEAR OFF LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...WITH ASSOC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
TSTM CHC WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCZ052-031730-
HAYWOOD-
1254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM EDT...

AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVE CREEK...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3579 8296 3575 8296 3575 8293 3562 8285
      3562 8284 3561 8283 3554 8315 3560 8318
      3563 8317 3565 8320 3567 8318 3568 8321
      3571 8323

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC IN
            WAYNESVILLE

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             6 NNW WAYNESVILLE       35.56N 83.02W
04/03/2012  M1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JONATHAN CREEK AREA.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             2 E CANTON              35.55N 82.81W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             5 W ALARKA              35.34N 83.53W
04/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       SWAIN              NC   PUBLIC

            NEEDMORE COMMUNITY

&&

CSH