High Surf in Florida, November 22 to 23, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EST THU NOV 22 2012

...DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY MAINLY ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TO CONTINUE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...MINOR BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING EAST COAST THROUGH WEEK'S END...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PALM BEACH COAST...

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AREA OF  LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC AROUND 700-800 MILES ENE
OF JACKSONVILLE. BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
DEVELOPED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA EAST COASTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. STRETCHING ALL THE
WAY DOWN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A VERY
DRY AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL KEEP WEATHER
DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME,
AND IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL
AS ENSEMBLES DEVELOP GALE CENTER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHICH IT THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE
CONSEQUENCES ON LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE ON
THIS IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER S/W TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NE WITH
TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. THE EFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF
REINFORCEMENT OF DRY/COOL AIRMASS. SO DESPITE THAT, CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
ALL IN ALL VERY PLEASANT, DRY, AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT LOW LEVELS WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
MOVE OFFSHORE BY EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EAST AND THEN SE AND SW BY MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THEN. SO ALL IN ALL, WARMING TREND RESUMING
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER CONSISTENT WHEN LOOKING AT RECENT MODEL
TRENDS AND WHEN COMPARING LATEST GFS, ECMWF, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET MAINLY ACROSS THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF FEET LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE. THIS INCLUDES A BUILDING SWELL THAT
WILL SPREAD SOUTH TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING GALE CENTER OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SWELLS WILL BE
BUILDING T0 2 TO 4 FEET OFF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COASTS AND UP TO
3 TO 5 FEET OFF PALM BEACH TODAY. DESPITE DECREASING WINDS BY
TOMORROW...SEAS WILL STILL BE AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE PALM
BEACH AND 6 TO 8 OFFSHORE MIAMI DADE BECAUSE THAT IS WHEN SWELLS
AROUND 11 TO 12 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET OFF
PALM BEACH AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFF MIAMI DADE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN SUBSIDING SOMETIME ON SATURDAY OR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

THIS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE BREAKER HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9
FEET ALONG THE PALM BEACH COAST LATER TODAY AND MORE LIKELY TOMORROW
DURING THE PEAK OF THE SWELL EVENT AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE
OCCASIONAL HIGHER WAVES COULD LEAD TO BREAKER HEIGHTS EXCEEDING 10
FEET AND THEREFORE WE WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
PALM BEACH COAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AND RE ASSESS LATER IN CASE
IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ALONG WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION
AND COASTAL FLOODING IN THE TYPICALLY COASTAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS
GIVEN THIS FORECAST AND THAT TIDES ARE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. THESE ITEMS WILL BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TODAY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AND THAT COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY HIGH ERC VALUES IS LEADING
US TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS ALSO BEING ISSUED FOR COLLIER COUNTY AT
THIS TIME. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS BEING CANCELLED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR A RED FLAG EVENT BUT WILL MONITOR DURING THE DAY IN CASE
CONDITIONS CHANGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOUNCE BACK UP TOMORROW
BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A DANGER STATEMENT
TOMORROW FOR THE SAME AREAS UNDER A WARNING OR STATEMENT TODAY. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT RE ASSESS LATER ON AS NEW DATA COMES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  56  75  53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  58  77  58 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI            75  58  76  58 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES           73  51  73  52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GLADES-HENDRY.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL PALM BEACH.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL MIAMI
     DADE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
     TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
221000-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
935 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012

...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MOST LOCAL WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHERLY WIND
AROUND 5 MPH OVER THIS AREA WHICH WILL MAKE THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THANKSGIVING DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF BUILDING SURF DUE TO A NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES. THE HIGHEST SURF AND STRONGEST RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAINLY
FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

WAVES: MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET AND WAVE PERIODS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12
SECONDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM BEGINNING
AROUND 5 TO 10 NAUTICAL MILES OFF THE EAST COAST AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE EAST
COAST BEACHES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN IMPACTS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL PEAK SOMETIME THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE 7 TO 10
FOOT RANGE...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SURF TO APPROACH HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...MAINLY FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.