Hail and Lightning Strike in Florida, May 18, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
113 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
REMAIN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT 500 MB A LOW
WILL BE CUTTING OFF TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION
AND SPIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PATTERN WILL REFLECT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING IN NEARLY THE SAME PLACE...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PENINSULA.
SURFACE OBS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A DISTINCT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE OF THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INCH INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
50S. THIS WILL BRING SOME COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT ELSEWHERE THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SHOW ONLY MINOR IMPACTS AS THE DRIER AIR MAY BRING LESS
CLOUDS...MORE SUN AND BETTER HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS GIVEN THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. SHADED POPS A LITTLE
LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE DRY AIRMASS AND NOTICED AN OVERALL
DRYING TREND IN MODEL POPS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THERE IS ENOUGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE TO PROVIDE SOME LOW POPS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY FOR SHRA)...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE
H85 WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND TWEAKED POPS BACK TO NO HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT FOR MON. H85-H7 MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TUE AND WED AND WILL BRING 30 POPS INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING IN
THE FAR SOUTH ON TUE BEFORE SPREADING NORTH ENCOMPASSING THE
ENTIRE LAND AREAS W/ 30 POPS BY THU. FAVORABLE WEAK SE FLOW WILL
FAVOR SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS IN THE ERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...ESP
BY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. GIVEN THIS...COVERAGE MAY
EXCEEDED THE 30 POP LATE IN THE PERIOD IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO HOLD TRUE. TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ISOLD SHRA NOW ALONG THE WEST COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS...EXCEPT AT FMY AND RSW WHICH COULD SEE A VCSH. WESTERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...ENE SAT MORNING....AND THEN SW
TO WEST AFTER 19/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICALLY LOW
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  89  70  90 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  72  91  69  92 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  68  90  68  91 /  10  40  20  30
SRQ  69  86  70  87 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  63  90  64  91 /  10  20  20  30
SPG  75  86  71  87 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON
AVIATION...RUDE
LONG TERM...COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-191000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
451 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JELSEMA