Heat in Florida, June 15, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.AVIATION...CU FIELD BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE E CST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW AND SPREAD INLAND WITH A GENERAL NE FLOW SETTING
UP. A FEW SHRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH TSRA BUILDING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE NE FLOW, THE TSRA WILL TEND TO END
QUICKER AT KPBI AND SO PLACED THIS TREND IN THE 18Z E CST TAFS.
THIS WILL ALSO PLACE CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AT KAPF.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BTWN 00-02Z THIS EVENING.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

UPDATE...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING WSW FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN FLORIDA WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS ANALYZED EXTENDING WEST ACROSS S
FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY. THE
MORNING MFL UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH -9 C 500 MB TEMPS AND PRIMARILY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PROFILE WITH A PWAT OF 1.43 INCHES. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHTNING...PERIODS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO EASE SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

CD/KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW OVER N FLA AND THE GULF
COAST...MOVES SSE WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SE U.S.
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND TO THE SE OF S FLA SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
FLA...SLIDES S AND THROUGH S FLA TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER
TO THE SE-S SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH AN E COAST SEA
BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ( POSSIBLY -10 TO -11 C AT 500
MB WHICH WILL BE 1.5-2.0 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY) DUE TO THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...SCATTERED STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. WITH
STEERING WINDS ALOFT WESTERLY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE E COAST. WITH A BREEZE
DEVELOPING OFF OF THE ATLC...E COAST LOCALES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
TODAY WHERE SOME MID 90S WERE RECORDED THURSDAY. WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. REMAINING QUITE WARM IN THE INTERIOR WITH A W COAST SEA
BREEZE MITIGATING HIGHS ALONG THE W COAST.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST KEEPS ANY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG TERM MODELS THOUGH INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE W GULF OF MEX MAY AID IN PULLING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE N AND OVER S FLA BY MID WEEK THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN GUIDANCE
POPS UNTIL THIS BECOMES MORE CLARIFIED BUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COULD BE MUCH WETTER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE...
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ATLC NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THOUGH
TONIGHT IN THE WATERS OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND WEST INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-160415-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
906 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY STRETCHING
NORTH INTO BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES AND INTO THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS
BEING THE MAIN IMPACTS. SOME OF THESE COULD BECOME STRONG AND EVEN
SEVERE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG WITH AN
INCOMING SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.