Southwest flow and deep layer moisture supported morning thunderstorms that created heavy rain and urban flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
Southwest flow and deep layer moisture supported morning thunderstorms that created heavy rain and urban flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 3:17 AM EST, 4 hours 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 417 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... 07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW OUR REGION LOCATED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. THE WEAKNESS IS DOMINATED BY A STUBBORN TUTT CELL WHICH IS VERY SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR FORECAST AREA (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ZONES) REMAIN UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG WITH PERIODIC IMPULSES OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ENHANCED LIFT. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITHIN THIS WEAKNESS IS RATHER MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 2"+. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A FAVORED SW FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TUTT CELL IS FORCING A SCATTERING OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE 1000-700MB FLOW TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY IS HELPING TO MIGRATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE NATURE COAST. WILL KEEP SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TUTT IS MUCH LESS. THIS TIME OF YEAR THE UNSTABLE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH ANY LATE NIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT MAY STILL FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY FROM MIGRATING BACK TO THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... TODAY...UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/TUTT CELL IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH. THIS PROGRESSION WILL ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE REGION. OVERALL WILL SEE A SLOW RISE IN H5 HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER THE RIDGE AXIS AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SUPPRESSION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH A MOIST COLUMN IN PLACE...WILL EXPECT AT LEAST A CLIMO DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC FLOW/SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING TUTT. SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA ALONG THE COAST...SHOULD SEE A DECENT SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOP AND HELP TO PUSH MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTION INLAND FROM THE BEACHES AFTER THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH A DRIER AND MORE HOSTILE COLUMN FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/TROUGHING WILL BASICALLY STALL UP OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION...AND THEN REMAIN IN POSITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL PUT OUR NORTHERN ZONES (NATURE COAST) IN THE TRANSITION ZONES BETWEEN THE LESS FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO THE SOUTH AND A VERY FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGIME NORTH AND WEST OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL ONCE AGAIN HIGHLIGHT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...THEN MIGRATING BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCES TO SEE THIS LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES. THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND ENHANCED SUPPRESSION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (35-50%) ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE 90S) FURTHER SOUTH. FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND SOUTHWARD...GOOD CHANCE TO SEE THE SEA-BREEZE CLEAR OUT ANY WIDELY SCT SHOWERS FROM THE BEACHES BY MID-AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WORK WEEK IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. WILL HIGHLIGHT A 30% CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCT STORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED 20% SHOWERS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WITH BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORT MYERS AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE DAY STORMS DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...BUT WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT A 30% CHANCE FOR NOW. THE BIGGER STORY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES WILL SEE THE MERCURY SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH NORMALLY HOTTER LOCATIONS OF HARDEE/DE SOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES REACHING THE UPPER 90S. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)... OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE RETREATING NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS RETURNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MEX POPS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATERS RISE TO WELL OVER 2 INCHES FOLLOWING A THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO NORMAL WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT AGAIN BY TUESDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE HOT ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S LIKELY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL KEEP IT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY...THEN THE MID 90S RETURN AGAIN WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 15Z TO 00Z AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP WITH HEATING. COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS STILL NOT CERTAIN SO WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 77 92 78 / 50 20 20 10 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 91 76 95 75 / 50 30 40 20 SRQ 89 76 91 76 / 50 20 20 10 BKV 90 72 93 73 / 60 20 30 10 SPG 88 78 91 80 / 50 20 20 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA AVIATION/LONG TERM...JILLSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 518 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870- 873-876-182130- LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE- TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM- ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM- BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM- TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM- ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM- BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM- 518 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING THEN PUSH INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT OUR OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT... HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. JILLSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused street flooding in Holiday around the intersection of US Highway 19 and US Alternate Highway 19.
Heavy rain caused street flooding in Jasmine Estates near the intersection of US Highway 19 and Embassy Boulevard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 402956, 402958.