An upper level low retrograded over the Florida peninsula. This feature brought cooler temperatures aloft which aided in diurnal destabilization.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
An upper level low retrograded over the Florida peninsula. This feature brought cooler temperatures aloft which aided in diurnal destabilization. The sea breezes and resultant outflows triggered scattered severe storms over an unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:43 PM EST, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 243 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 .NEAR TERM...THRU TONIGHT...HIGH-RES WRF AGAIN ACCURATELY SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...SHIFTING WESTWARD. MAY HAVE OVERDONE SEABREEZE COLLISION INTERIOR FL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AS NO WEST COAST SEABREEZE YET. NEVERTHELESS WITH LIFT IN LEADING PART OF UPPER LOW MOVING OVER NRN FL... ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS WESTWARD TOWARD LAKE CITY AND GAINESVILLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA DURING NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...BUT LOWERING POPS TO 10 PCT AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE STEERING FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE WILL BE DOMINANT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE MORNING AND THEN BUILD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EVEN MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL KEEP HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. && .AVIATION...SIMILAR TO YDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR BENEATH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA. && .MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA SHOW LIGHT WINDS AS EXPECTED...WITH CONTINUED 3-4FT EASTERLY SWELL. CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY SWELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 93 72 93 / 20 50 50 40 SSI 76 89 78 90 / 20 40 30 30 JAX 71 90 75 92 / 20 50 40 40 SGJ 73 88 76 90 / 20 50 30 30 GNV 70 89 71 92 / 40 60 50 40 OCF 70 89 72 92 / 40 60 50 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && SHULER/WOLF/
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 405 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040- GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170830- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM- ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON- SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS- GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON- APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN- COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN- 405 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY... .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES WEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. MZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 318 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 FLZ025-161945- DUVAL- 318 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT... AT 319 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER OCEANWAY...OR 4 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCEANWAY AND JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH 345 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. LAT...LON 3033 8175 3049 8180 3054 8159 3040 8149 TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 014DEG 4KT 3046 8164 SHULER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
549 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012
FLZ040-162230-
MARION-
549 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...
AT 549 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANTOS TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF SUMMERFIELD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEIRSDALE...
SUMMERFIELD...SANTOS...ROMEO...OCKLAWAHA...LAKE WEIR...BELLEVIEW...
RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES AND DUNNELLON THROUGH 630 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
LAT...LON 2901 8242 2904 8247 2903 8252 2905 8254
2922 8254 2922 8245 2916 8215 2899 8168
2895 8173 2895 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 023DEG 13KT 2915 8242 2903 8221
2892 8203
NELSONThe Tampa radar (KTBW), 152 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:08 UTC.
1 hail, 1 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Quarter size hail was reported in Marion with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph which caused tree debris.
Storm total rainfall within 2 hours was 2 inches.
A roof was blown off of an outbuilding and a trampoline was blown into the woods nearby. About 1/4 mile away from this structural damage, some trees were blown down. The cost of damage was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 398876, 398877, 398881.