Hail in Florida, July 16, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS EARLIER WITH DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD ALSO
THINNING. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A TAD BIT MORE INSTABILITY
SINCE SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHT COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DIURNAL
SFC HEATING WOULD MAKE YOU BELIEVE EARLIER ONSET TO CONVECTION
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER, THIS DID NOT MATERIALIZE WITH
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN BEING DELAYED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SOME
ANALYSIS HAVE DISCOVERED FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TUTT LIKE FEATURE
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL AND A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. SO ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY AND DELAYED THE REAL ACTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE, THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE BEGINNING
TO OCCUR  BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND IN EARNEST ON THURSDAY. THUS, THE
LOWERING TREND OF POPS CURRENTLY BEING ADVERTISED IN THE LOCAL FCST
WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT, THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT'S DROPPING TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES ON THURSDAY WHICH WOULD RUN BELOW THE 25TH
PERCENTILE. THOSE LOW PWAT VALUES COMBINED WITH RISING 50H WILL
LOWER THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW FOR CLIMBING AFTERNOON
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AREAS. THUS, HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE RANGE OF 100-105 ALONG BOTH COASTS AND
105-109 OVER THE INTERIOR FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION, AN AREA OF AFRICAN SAHARAN DUST IS BEING TRACKED WITH
SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS LIKELY MOVING OVER S FL
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE PROBABILISTIC FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAKING FOR A HAZY SKY. DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND SO
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  76  90 / 50 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  79  91 / 50 40 30 20
MIAMI            76  90  78  91 / 40 40 20 30
NAPLES           74  87  75  89 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
508 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
170015-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
508 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS TODAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH.

FLOODING: SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

WARMER TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, COULD LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 IN ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHER READINGS
IN THE INTERIOR BY MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.