Moderate to severe drought conditions covered all of western Colorado by the end of May, with extreme drought conditions developing across the northwest portion of the state. A historically reduced snow pack and resultant below normal runoff, below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures all contributed to the increase in elevated drought conditions across the region.
Every event with a place to put it; 21 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Moderate to severe drought conditions covered all of western Colorado by the end of May, with extreme drought conditions developing across the northwest portion of the state. A historically reduced snow pack and resultant below normal runoff, below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures all contributed to the increase in elevated drought conditions across the region. An increase in wildland fire danger was the main impact from the drought conditions in the late Spring period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 9:00 PM MST, 3 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1000 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM MDT AS GUSTY WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF AND HUMIDITY HAS RECOVERED ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HIGHER RESOLULTION INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEY ARE MOSTLY OPAQUE. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. LARGER CLOUD MASS STREAMING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND POPS TO SHOW LESS CLOUD AND LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY MORE OF EACH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. WINDS ALOFT BEGAN MIXING TO THE GROUND ABOUT NOON WITH INCREASING GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE GUSTS REACHING FIRE WEATHER RED FLAG CRITERIA AT MANY LOCATIONS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CO NW PLATEAU. THUS RED FLAG WARNING WAS CONTINUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEE MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE FIRST BAND OF WEAK BAROCLINICITY WILL REACH THE NORTHERN CO AND UT BORDERS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE A LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST TUE BUT THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BOOK CLIFFS TUE AND FOCUS ALONG A LINE JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN CO AND UT BORDERS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT AND TAKE THE PRECIP WITH IT TO SOUTHERN WY. TEMPS MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AFTERNOON MAXES DUE TO NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 AN ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AS A RATHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA FORCES THE STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE BORDER. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT DECENT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE MORNING IS BACKING THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE ASCENT FROM THE IDAHO SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE JET LOCATION LOOKS TO FOCUS THE BEST PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND THE FAR WESTERN CORNER OF NORTHERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY MORNING SO HAVE PLACES HIGHEST POPS THERE ATTM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME FEED OF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA FROM BOTH PACIFIC AND BAJA REGIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH OROGRAPHICS AND UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY AND A PASSING VORT LOBE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME DIFFERENCES COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE EJECTING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...THE NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AS DEFINED. WILL PROBABLY LEAVE THE SMALL POPS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA AND SEE HOW CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT FLOATING MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH AND IF MODELS CAN PICK UP ON THIS WAVE IN FUTURE RUNS. BY LATE WEEK THE JET DYNAMICS WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD BY A SHARPER DEVELOPING TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALSO THE MOISTURE DIRECTED INTO OUR CWA LOOKS TO BE SHUNTED NORTH AS WELL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE NOSE OF THE LIFTING JET WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND LEAVE OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN LINE FOR THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE FORCING WEAK ENOUGH FOR MAINLY ISOLATED CHANCES IN THE VALLEY. BACKED MID LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH GOOD MIXING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS. AGAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE BROUGHT THE FOREFRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP SOME IN THE NORTH AS LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. THE NORTHWEST ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A MORE DISTINCT TROF THEN CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DIRECTED AT OUR CWA AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING SO EVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS VERY LIMITED. A REX TYPE BLOCK WILL BE SETTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WEST AS THE LOW UNDERCUTS A BUILDING WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL DATA CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WELL. FOR NOW STAYED WITH THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION WITH MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY. LOCAL OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 327 PM MDT MON APR 30 2012 RED FLAG CONDITIONS BEING MET ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE WORKED DOWN THE SURFACE BY THE STORM TRACK AND JET STREAM ALOFT. THIS WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN NORTHERN COLORADO OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS AND MAY BRING SOME RELIEF TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND ANY ADDED MOISTURE MAY HELP ACCELERATE GREEN UP. IN SOUTHERN COLORADO THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH MORE SPARSE AND WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE...BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED DAILY. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && UPDATE...PF SHORT TERM...CC LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...15
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 534 AM MDT MON APR 30 2012 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011145- LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- 534 AM MDT MON APR 30 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CO FIRE ZONES 200 AND 202 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES...BREEZY WINDS AND CRITICAL FUELS FROM NOON THROUGH 9PM... .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLORADO FIRE ZONES 200 AND 202 FROM NOON THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PART OF UTAH AND COLORADO TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY CREATING VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
21 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Moderate drought conditions spread across the area in May as precipitation and river flows continued to run below normal.
Moderate drought conditions spread across the area in May as precipitation and river flows continued to run below normal.
Moderate drought conditions spread across the Four Corners region of Colorado in May as precipitation and river flows continued to run below normal.
Moderate to severe drought conditions expanded across the lower valleys of southwest Colorado during May as spring precipitation remained below normal.
Moderate drought conditions expanded across the southern Colorado mountains due to a reduced snow pack and continued below normal precipitation through the spring.
Moderate drought conditions expanded across the southern Colorado mountains due to a reduced snow pack and continued below normal precipitation through the spring.
Severe drought conditions persisted across the upper Gunnison River Valley due to a reduced snow pack and continued below normal precipitation through the spring.
Severe drought conditions spread across the central portions of the Gunnison and Uncompahgre River basins as spring precipitation remained well below normal and runoff from the snow pack was greatly reduced.
Severe drought conditions remained in place across the lower reaches of the Gunnison and Colorado River basins as spring precipitation remained well below normal and runoff from the snow pack was greatly reduced.
Severe drought conditions spread across the southern plateau region of western Colorado in May as precipitation remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions persisted across the southern portions of the Grand Mesa and an area of extreme drought developed across Battlement Mesa and the remainder of the Grand Mesa in May as precipitation remained well below normal and a limited snow pack kept runoff at a minimum.
Severe drought conditions remained in place across much of the central mountain areas of western Colorado. However a small portion of extreme drought moved into the northwest corner of the area by the end of May.
Severe drought conditions remained in place across much of the central mountains of western Colorado as below normal precipitation continued through the spring.
Severe drought conditions remained in place across the upper portions of the Colorado River basin in May as precipitation through the spring remained below normal.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme conditions across the middle portions of the Colorado River basin in May as precipitation through the spring remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme conditions across much the area in May as precipitation through the spring remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme conditions across the area in May as spring precipitation amounts remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions persisted across the northern portion of the area while extreme drought conditions spread across the southern portion of the area in May as spring precipitation amounts remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme drought conditions across the upper Yampa River basin in May as precipitation remained well below normal.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme drought conditions across the central Yampa River basin in May as precipitation remained well below.
Severe drought conditions transitioned to extreme drought conditions across the lower Yampa River basin in May as precipitation remained well below normal.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 394852, 394855, 394856, 394863, 394866, 394867, 394869, 394875, 394877, 394878, 394879, 394881, 394885, 394896, 394897, 394905, 394906, 394910, 394912, 394913, 394914.