Heavy rain produced flash flooding in the High Park burn area. The westbound lane of Colorado Highway 14 was closed due to multiple mudslides at County Road 27.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BOU wrote it up.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding in the High Park burn area. The westbound lane of Colorado Highway 14 was closed due to multiple mudslides at County Road 27. The two largest slides occurred at Stevens Gulch and the intersection of Colorado Highway 14 and Stove Prairie Road.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Denver/Boulder, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 8:36 AM MST, 6 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 936 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012 .UPDATE...HAVE BEEN CONTEMPLATING ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE BURN SCARS. WITH THE RECENT MODELS COMING IN THIS MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THESE STORMS WILL FORM AND TRAVEL TODAY...FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE WITH ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SLOW TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND WE ARE ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND THE SAME AS YESTERDAY FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW NAM CAME IN WITH MORE MOISTURE TONIGHT AND A BIT OF A DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WELL WITH MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND. && .AVIATION...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER WIND PUSH FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...MOST LIKELY FROM CONVECTION. THIS WAS MODELED YESTERDAY AND LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS THE WEST DIRECTION DID BECOME PREVAILING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL BE ADDING THE WNW PUSH IN TO THE TAFS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THAT MAY REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012/ SHORT TERM...MONSOONAL MOISTURE BAND REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH A GRADIENT TOWARD DRIER AIR ACROSS THE EAST. SHALLOW LAYER OF BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE DENVER AREA AND FOOTHILLS. PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FRONT NOT REALLY DEFINED AT ALL...CURRENT WINDS OVER DENVER ARE ALREADY NORTHEAST WITH VERY SHALLOW SURFACE DRAINAGE. BETTER DEFINED FRONT WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT JUST INTO NORTHERN MONTANA AND NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THAT EITHER. IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH FOR THE FORECAST...STILL EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TODAY...IT JUST MAY NOT BE FORCED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO SOME DOUBT ABOUT ANY INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE WITHOUT A WHOLESALE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. MODELS HOLD THE MOISTURE THE SAME OR INCREASE IT SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM MIXING THOUGH THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT REALLY MUCH DRIER. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE 800-1500 J/KG...IT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER DAY WHERE STORMS HAVE STRONG INITIAL PULSES BUT THEN HAVE DIFFICULTY SUSTAINING THEMSELVES...AND WITH CLOUD COVER RESTRAINING THINGS AFTER THE EARLY CONVECTION. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...A CLOUDY ENVIRONMENT...AND LOW WIND SHEAR SEVERE THREAT IS PRETTY LOW DESPITE THE POTENTIAL CAPE. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MAY WIND UP BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR SLIGHTLY MOISTER...AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NORTH TO NORTHWEST CELL MOTION BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE AT THE SURFACE LEADING TO REDEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORMS...SO POTENTIAL STATIONARY OR TRAINING CELLS. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO FAVORING AREAS OF CONVERGENCE FROM FOOTHILLS CONVECTION IN OR JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...BUT WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MOISTURE AND WIND TRENDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING. LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE THE STAGE MAY BE SETTING UP FOR A MOIST WEEK OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS. WITH ANY LUCK...THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE RAIN TOO. EACH OF THE COMPUTER MODELS PERSIST IN SPREADING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE MOST OF THE WEEK. LAST EVENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA WHICH WILL BE ADVECTING INTO COLORADO TODAY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING THE ARIZONA CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OPEN. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF PRODUCING THE DIURNAL SHOWERS WE WOULD EXPECT DURING A MONSOON. BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DO NOT LOOK ANY DRIER AS THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED. HYDROLOGY MAY TURN INTO OUR BIGGEST ISSUE AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. HYDROLOGY...STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING TODAY...GENERALLY 10 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR OVER THE BURN AREAS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN LONG TERM....DANKERS AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1052 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012 COZ030>051-171700- JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET- WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET- GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET- SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/ NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET- SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/ GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET- JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY- LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY- BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY- ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET- NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY- CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES- NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN COUNTY- SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY- LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY- 1052 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT TODAY WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ON THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.35 INCHES IN AN HOUR OR LESS. THE HEAVIEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR OR LESS...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ISSUES. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BURN SCARS FROM RECENT WILDFIRES WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING IF HEAVY RAINS OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
The Cheyenne radar (KCYS), 71 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding in the High Park burn area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 402466.