Drought in Colorado, August 1 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1249 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

15Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH CWA ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION...WITH ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER. 12Z
RAOBS INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ASIDE FROM SOME
LOW LEVEL DRYING AT LBF...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES STILL OBSERVED
MAINLY BETWEEN H7 AND H6 AT BOTH DDC AND DNR.

MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
LARGE SCALE RIDGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT. OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND PW PROFILES SIMILAR AS WELL...WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL SHEAR BEING
NOTICEABLY WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH CU FIELDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR MESOLOW NOTED OVER YUMA COUNTY...FAIRLY
LARGE LCLS IN PLACE FAVORING STRONG COLD POOLS AND MCS VECTORS
FAVORING EASTWARD MOTION INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA
THINK CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FAIRLY GOOD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT UNTIL SOME ECHOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM AM HESITANT TO GO MUCH ABOVE THE 40-50% RANGE FOR POPS
ATTM. BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE 00-04Z RANGE...BUT
WITH LINGERING WAA THROUGH THE NIGHT THINK AT LEAST A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
WITH WET BULB TEMPS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BRINGING TEMPS DOWN
INTO THE 60S AS STORMS PASS RESULTING IN AT LEAST FEW LOCATIONS
SEEING LOW TEMPS OCCURRING EARLIER THAN NORMAL. WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER/FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 17 KFT MSL...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT BUT THINK OVERALL
MCS MOTION WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH NEAR THE FRONT. RIDGE WILL REBUILD LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THEY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
SHOWERS IN THE TAFS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BELOW VFR IF A
STRONGER STORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ONE OF THE OBSERVATION
SITES...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
BOTH KMCK AND KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 AM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1048 AM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012 /1148 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A MCCOOK TO LEOTI LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

COZ091-010500-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
1024 PM MDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 1019 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARRIBA...OR 10 MILES WEST OF FLAGLER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10316 3943 10281 3909 10304 3914 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0424Z 209DEG 21KT 3928 10322

LUNDQUIST