Wildfire in Arkansas, March 7, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1132 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH VFR. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN LOWERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ENDED AT 6 PM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS SET UP OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE SEEN TEMPS LOWERING AT A SLOWER RATE DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER AR FROM THE SW. WILL ADJUST TEMPS UP
A BIT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE INCREASED WINDS A
BIT ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AGAIN WITH THRESH HOLDS ARE REACHED. OTHERWISE...MODELS BRING IN
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FROM THE WEST LATE DAY AND HAVE TREND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO GREATER POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE AND WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO STALL. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT.

GIVEN THE PATTERN...HAVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE 2 TO
3 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY OVER 4 INCHES IN THE
TWO DAY PERIOD.

DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
EVENT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...HAVE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BEFORE
THE FRONT ARRIVES...AND THEN DAYTIME READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AS CLOUDS/RAIN DEVELOP. NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING THE EUROPEAN MODEL
DUE TO THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS KEEPS RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE STATE. DUE TO
THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...BUT HAVE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.

FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM...BUT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES
ABOVE 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LESS CONCERN FOR SPREADING OF
FIRES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  68  57  68 /   0  10  50  90
CAMDEN AR         57  73  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
HARRISON AR       55  67  57  63 /   0  10  50  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  70  61  71 /   0  10  40  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  71  57  73 /   0  10  40  70
MONTICELLO AR     56  73  59  78 /   0  10  30  50
MOUNT IDA AR      57  69  60  71 /   0  10  40  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  56  66 /   0  10  50  90
NEWPORT AR        54  69  59  69 /   0  10  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     55  72  58  75 /   0  10  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  69  56  69 /   0  10  50  90
SEARCY AR         55  70  56  71 /   0  10  40  80
STUTTGART AR      55  72  57  74 /   0  10  30  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
733 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071200-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
733 PM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
HEAD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL ENCOUNTER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

THIS SLUGGISH FRONT...SURROUNDED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WILL RESULT
IN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND THE
UPPER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... SETTING
UP A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SITUATION. IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER THE
RAIN MAY LAST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD BRING FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN TO MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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