Wildfire in Arkansas, August 1 to 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN AR AND
WENT WITH VCTS AT KHRO AND KPBF. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY CEILINGS
WITH CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY NORTH TO
EAST CENTRAL AR AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS OR VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS MAINLY SE TO SW AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT
THEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT OVER THE
REGION HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE COMING DAYS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE WEST...CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

AN UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS OVER THE
AREA...AS WELL AS FOR FORECASTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EASTERN ARKANSAS REMAINED CLOUD COVERED
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH LED TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN FOR
THE REST OF THE STATE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW BUT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EFFECT FURTHER WEST...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LITTLE ROCK. BECAUSE OF THIS...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE SEVERAL DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE WEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH READINGS IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE VS. THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE SEEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHEN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS...SO
WILL THE RAIN CHANCES. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE DOWN AND CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AREA OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE KEPT HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105
DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING WEAK SYSTEMS TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN. HAVE OPTED TO DROP THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH...AS READINGS WILL BE BELOW 115
DEGREES...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY HIT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF QUESTIONS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. HAVE MUCH OF
THE RAINFALL CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THESE
RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE EXPANDING THE
HEAT ADVISORY IN TIME...AS GUIDANCE NOT CONSISTENT IN RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS RMN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE FCST PD. A BROAD UPR LVL RDG
WL BE SITUATED FM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SERN STATES. A POTENT UPR
LVL TROF WL BE WORKING EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT...EVENTUALLY
MOVG THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WL FORCE
THE UPR RDG WWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND ALLOW A FNTL BNDRY TO APCH NRN
AR. STAYED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE REGARDING THE SWD PROGRESS OF
THE FNT AS THE UPR RDG HAS CONTD TO WIN OUT THIS SUMMER OVR MOST SWD
ADVANCING BNDRYS. THE UPR HIGH IS FCST TO REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE
MID SOUTH HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTD TO MENTION SLGT CHC
POPS MOST DAYS...MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WL CONT TO CLIMB TO
ABV NORMAL LVLS THRU THE PD.

FIRE WEATHER...

DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER PERSIST. THE VERY DRY
VEGETATION THAT IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE WILDFIRE THREAT.

THE WILDFIRE THREAT RANGES FROM HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS ALL OF THE
STATE. EXPECT WINDS OF 8 TO 14 MPH COMMON...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SOME AREAS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE. MOST COUNTIES IN AR REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS...AND ANY
FIRE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

227

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011030-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1250 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND MAY REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM
THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW.

MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS IN EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND BONE DRY VEGETATION. MOST COUNTIES
HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED AS FIRES COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105
TO NEAR 110 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS AND RAIN COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW. ALSO THE
THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BE
VERY LOW.

THE WILDFIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH TO EXTREME FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED IN
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE TO BRING MUCH RELIEF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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