A moist southeast flow of air coupled with an embedded mid level trough resulted in thunderstorms across southeast Arizona from the Tucson Metro eastward. Some storms produced heavy rain, mainly in Cochise County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A moist southeast flow of air coupled with an embedded mid level trough resulted in thunderstorms across southeast Arizona from the Tucson Metro eastward. Some storms produced heavy rain, mainly in Cochise County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 2:08 PM MST, 6 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 208 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. LESS ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS...THEN A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...SPECIFICALLY FROM SOUTHERN BAJA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD. CLOSER TO HOME A DISTURBANCE IS ALSO MOVING WEST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST SONORA. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERING MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY AND OVER COCHISE COUNTY AND THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ALSO OVER WESTERN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO NEAR SILVER CITY AND MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.44 INCHES. THE SOUNDING USED T=96;TD=58 AND YIELDED A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 4 AND A CAPE OF AROUND 1100 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT BASED ON THE MODELS THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE BEST AREA OF SHEAR MOVES FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z U OF A WRF MODEL...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS VERSIONS DEPICT CONVECTION FIRING TODAY OVER SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND SPREADING NORTHWEST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING BETWEEN AROUND 4 TO 6 PM MST. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE THAT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE HOURS THAT ARE DO NOT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME OF THE BURN AREAS...SINCE IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH PRECIPITATION TO RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT SO FAR WE ARE NOT SEEING VERY MUCH ACTIVITY ON RADAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR SILVER CITY NEW MEXICO...I WILL HOLD OFF THIS DECISION UNTIL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...I MAY JUST DEFER THIS DECISION TO THE EVENING SHIFT SINCE THEY WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS TO EXACTLY WHAT AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED AND IF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD JUSTIFY A WATCH ANYWAY. FOR TOMORROW EXPECTING RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN...BUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECTING A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE DESERTS/VALLEYS AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD I KEPT THE INHERITED POP FORECAST WHICH BASICALLY CALLS FOR A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST OF LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE DESERTS/VALLEYS AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS 5-8KFT AGL. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DVLPG THRU 04/01Z...THEN SCT-BKN SHRA/TSRA CONTINUING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING OR 04/12Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY 5-15 KTS THRU 04/02Z... THEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE HAD MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...AS WELL AS STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. PUBLIC...GM AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GZ WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 245 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012 AZZ501>515-041400- WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION- UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA- SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY- UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY- EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY- WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES- GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS- DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS- CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS- 245 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR MOUNTAINS AND BORDER AREAS WILL SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UNLIKE NORMAL DAYS...THE LATE NIGHT HOURS MAY SEE EVEN MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOME STORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING A POTENTIAL CONCERN. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
418 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012
AZZ509>511-040000-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-UPPER GILA
RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN MEADOW
AZ-
418 PM MST TUE JUL 3 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE AND CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MST...
AT 413 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING WEST AT 20
MPH.
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.
AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAFFORD...SOLOMON...JUNCTION
OF HIGHWAYS 191 AND 266...SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION...THATCHER...FRYE MESA
DAM...PIMA...MOUNT GRAHAM...FORT GRANT...FORT THOMAS AND BONITA.
LAT...LON 3250 11010 3307 11002 3317 10954 3278 10922
3247 10931
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 099DEG 20KT 3277 10958The Tucson radar (KEMX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:42 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was first reported along Davis Road east of Tombstone where 5 vehicles were stuck in flood waters. Another motorist was stuck on Frontier Road. Two homes were also flooded within the city of Tombstone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 401842.