Name: Blizzard in Alaska, February 10, 2012
Start: 2012-02-10T10:00
End: 2012-02-10T16:50
Location: Alaska

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A low in Prince William Sound produced strong wind and snow through the Thompson Pass area resulting in blizzard conditions.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 10, 5:00 AM AKST, 5 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 5:00 AM AKST, 5 hours before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI FEB 10 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ARE
WITH THE NEXT TWO LOWS THAT ARE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENT IDEAS ON LOW TRACKS AND
INTENSITIES...WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST SOUTHEAST SOLUTION. THE GFS
WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR BOTH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WE STUCK CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGING OF WESTERN
CANADA AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOWS MAINLY
AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF COAST
THIS MORNING...AND A MID-950S MB LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY ON IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG COOK INLET
AND THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA...BEFORE THE TURNAGAIN ARM
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS INCREASING RETURNS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE THE ANCHORAGE
AREA WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

AFTER THIS LOW DISSIPATES TONIGHT...THE NEXT LOW TO AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR PORTAGE ON SATURDAY.
SINCE THE GFS IS TRENDING COLDER AND THE CERTAINTY REMAINS...WE WILL
ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH AND CONTINUE MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS WINDS WITH THE TRAIN OF LOWS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...BUT THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
EACH LOW REMAINS IN QUESTION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH...125
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 170 172
                        175
         STORM WARNING...155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

Event by event

1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Nern P.W. Snd

When: February 10, 10:00 AM AKST to 4:50 PM AKST
Where: Nern P.W. Snd forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways

What these are

Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2012 Every state in 2012 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, February 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 356802.