Drought in Alabama, September 1 to 30, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT EXPECT RAIN TO BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES RAISED SLIGHTLY BASED ON TROPICAL AIR MASS AND
WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS SOME
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NO LOW CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED IN VCTS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
FOR THE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THOSE TERMINALS. THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KMGM AND KTOI SHOULD OBSERVE MORE ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

56/GDG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012/

EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE EVENING
BUT THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS DUE TO THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OVER THE
OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING
THE DEEP SOUTH IN AN UPPER LEVEL LULL THAT WILL SPAWN SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 90S. EXPECT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY AIDED AND THEN LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK STILL APPEARS TO HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH ISAAC AND AN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW THAT PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOMEWHAT MERGE
OVER GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
STILL SHOWS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
STALLS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT WITH
ANY OF THESE FEATURES BUT DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     73  90  71  89  71 /  20  30  40  40  40
ANNISTON    73  91  72  90  71 /  20  30  30  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  74  89  73  90  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
TUSCALOOSA  74  91  73  92  72 /  20  40  40  30  30
CALERA      74  89  72  90  72 /  20  30  30  40  30
AUBURN      73  91  72  90  71 /  20  20  20  40  30
MONTGOMERY  74  94  73  93  72 /  20  30  20  40  30
TROY        73  93  71  92  71 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
814 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-020115-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
814 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.