Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, June 3, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WATCHING A WEAK IMPULSE SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND CLAP
OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
AS THESE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR THE UPDATE...RAISED POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS. THINKING THAT THE SOUTHERN SITES ARE GOOD
ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE TEMPERATURES WHILE THE NORTH WILL BE
TRENDING SLOWER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. STILL THINK
THAT WE WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHS MAY BE A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY. UPDATES
OUT ALREADY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE
WITH WNW WINDS AT 5-10 KTS.  THE MAIN THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS.  UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THESE STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
AS FAR AS TIMING...BUT STORMS ARE EXPECTED NONETHELESS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

HAVE DECIDED TO TRY TO TIME OUT AT THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS WE
FINALLY HAVE SOME CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. TCL BHM AND EET WILL
LIKELY SEE THE FIRST IMPACT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXTENT
OF THE COVERAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES
ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE TS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL COME DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE 12Z. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE WEATHER TO IMPACT BHM
AND TCL BEFORE 12Z THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD WORK INTO TCL AND EET
FROM THE NORTH AS WELL. UNSURE ABOUT THE ENDING TIME SO WILL UPDATE
WITH THE EVENING FORECAST. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD BE REDUCED WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...SO PAY ATTENTION FOR THOSE AMENDMENTS AS WELL.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-041200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1250 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ACTIVITY WILL START IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THE THREAT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST...WITH AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

THIS PATTERN OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEPENDENT ON A NUMBER OF
FACTORS...SO TIMING AND LOCATION COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAY. CHECK BACK WITH THIS PRODUCT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED PERIODICALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011-031845-
MARION AL-
135 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 135 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF TREMONT...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RED
BAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A HEADS UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8813 3432 8803 3432 8801 3406 8807
      3405 8805 3408 8821 3433 8817 3433 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 274DEG 26KT 3425 8812

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
153 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ALZ011-031930-
MARION AL-
153 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 152 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RED BAY TO TREMONT TO NEW SALEM...AND MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. A SECOND STORM IS DEVELOPING NEAR BRILLIANT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HAMILTON...
  HACKLEBURG...
  WESTON...
  BRINN...
  GUIN...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8803 3432 8783 3417 8778 3410 8765
      3394 8765 3394 8794 3406 8796 3406 8821
      3427 8819 3433 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 270DEG 23KT 3434 8797 3421 8815
          3412 8836