Drought in Alabama, December 1 to 31, 2012

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA MOSTLY DISSIPATED
WITH THE LACK OF MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING... TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK
WAA AT 850 MB... MAY SEE SOME NEW LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AROUND THIS LEVEL. HOWEVER... CURRENTLY THINK ANY CLOUDS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE MORE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY THAN OVERCAST. THIS
WOULD ALLOW GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN LOWER MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. BASED OFF THE BIAS CORRECTED/ADJUSTED MOS
GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL THIS LAST WEEK OR
SO WITH MIN TEMPS... DECIDED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR
WHERE THEY SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH.

IF FEW CLOUDS FORM OVERNIGHT... MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS BELOW THE
INVERSION... SO KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THE 3-8 AM TIME
FRAME. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG GIVEN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT PATCHY IS A POSSIBILITY.

77/GLEASON

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

PROBLEMS WILL BEGIN TO ARISE SHORTLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE IN AGREEMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE ISSUE DEALS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT...THEREFORE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
WHERE THE LOWEST CIGS WILL OCCUR. YOU CAN SEE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 4 AND
5Z ON SATELLITE A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-59
CORRIDOR. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE THE BEST MOISTURE SO
WILL GO AND CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING IN THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PATCHY
FOG COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN...BUT ANY REDUCED VIS SHOULD PRIMARILY
FALL IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. WITH THAT SAID GIVEN LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE EET AND TCL WITH TEMPO IFR
BR AFTER 8 AND 9Z...WITH BEST CHANCES AT TCL AND THEY ARE ALREADY
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. AGAIN...THIS IS A FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO EXPECT AMENDMENTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

77/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
839 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-020245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
839 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR WATERWAYS WILL BE THE
MOST IMPACTED...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE
AT TIMES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.