Wildfire in Washington, June 16, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
240 PM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THE TROUGH'S MAIN
LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA, STRETCHING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO. THIS LOW CENTER WILL SWING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO FILL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, BUT ENERGY OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS ENERGY WILL REDEVELOP ANOTHER CENTRAL LOW OVER IDAHO BY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CURRENT LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY
BREEZY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE AND THE
KITTITAS VALLEY. WINDS IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THAT WINDS AT THE ELLENSBURG
AIRPORT MAY EXCEED 30 MPH SUSTAINED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AS THESE WINDS MAY REMAIN
LOCAL TO THE AREA AROUND THE AIRPORT. CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL OREGON
WILL BE QUITE CLEAR AND DRY TONIGHT. THUS EXPECT LOW TEMPS WITHIN
THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES TO DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR BELOW AGAIN,
AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS ZONE. CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY OVER MOST AREAS FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE AND WEAK HEATING INDUCED INSTABILITY OVER WALLOWA COUNTY
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THERE LOOKS TO BE
A WEAK CAP OVER WALLOWA COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, AND ONE OR
TWO OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BREAK THROUGH AND DEVELOP INTO A
THUNDERSTORM. AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE TROUGH
SATURDAY, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN AREA OF GENERAL RAIN
COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST OREGON, BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MORE
SHOWERY TYPE OF EVENT. THUS WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL OREGON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY, BUT CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY OF THESE FROM DEVELOPING INTO THUNDERSTORMS. 90

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW IS EXITING
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDERS. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWEST WITH SOME MOISTURE
WORKING IT WAY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS LOW ON THURSDAY, SO INCLUDED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 93

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
HOURS. PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SUNSET AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN SOME MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAINLY WASHINGTON THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS 20 TO 30
KTS WILL PERSIST AT KDLS, WITH OTHER SITES SEEING 10 TO 20 KTS
UNTIL SUNSET AND BECOME 5 TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  76  49  74 /  10   0  10  30
ALW  49  77  53  75 /  10   0  10  30
PSC  48  81  53  79 /   0   0  10  20
YKM  44  79  51  77 /   0   0  10  30
HRI  45  80  51  78 /   0   0  10  20
ELN  48  79  52  76 /  10   0  10  30
RDM  31  77  45  71 /   0   0  10  30
LGD  38  74  43  70 /  10  10  10  40
GCD  38  75  43  71 /   0   0  10  40
DLS  49  80  55  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY ORZ509.

WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
FRIDAY : GREEN
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/93/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
821 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

UPDATED TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
171415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
821 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.  DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SHOWERS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.