Wildfire in Washington, August 7, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
955 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2011

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST REGION. A FEW CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE FOR
MONDAY WHEN A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE NEAR 130 W AND 40 N WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED AND THE POTENTIAL OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES...DESCHUTES NATIONAL
FOREST...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE AND
STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY.

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS. CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES. COULD SEE SCATTERED CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE OREGON
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS 5-15 KT
EXCEPT 15-25KT AT KDLS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.    94

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A TROUGH TYPE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE WEST COAST IN
GENERAL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE MORE WESTERLY WITHIN THE TROUGH RATHER THAN SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD AND THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGES HAVE SHOWN THIS SCENARIO WITH THE FORECAST
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NOT REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS
EARLIER IN THE PAST WEEK. IN FACT THE LINE OF WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM IS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...I.E. GREATEST IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BOTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. ON
TUESDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN BETWEEN TROUGHS...
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
NEXT TROUGH WILL NOT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WESTERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATION READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 IN SOME LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE
TRI-CITIES AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE DEGREES COOLING ON TUESDAY DUE
TO THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW RATHER THAN SOUTHWEST. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... MODELS SHOW A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REDEVELOP A TROUGH OFFSHORE WHICH
WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER
TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING A FEW DEGREES BY SATURDAY TO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ABOVE 8000 FT AGL OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXCEPT AT KDLS WHICH WILL BE AT 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH 07Z TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 20Z TO
04Z. KRDM AND KBDN WILL AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM
22Z TO 03Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  55  87  55 /   0   0  10  10
ALW  89  60  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  91  60  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  88  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  90  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  85  58  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  87  48  87  46 /  10   0  20  20
LGD  88  53  85  52 /  10  10  20  20
GCD  87  53  84  52 /  10  10  20  20
DLS  86  58  86  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ505-506.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ042-509.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     ORZ503.

WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : YELLOW
TUESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

84/94

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
922 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2011

UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ADD FIRE WEATHER WATCH
MONDAY

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
081400-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
922 AM PDT SUN AUG 7 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES,
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
     NORTH CENTRAL OREGON, EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES,
     GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN,OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON
AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
WITH STORMS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
AREAS LISTED ABOVE. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCT ID PDXRFWPDT FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE REGION WILL THEN BE UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD. CAN
EXPECT DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EACH DAY AND A GENERAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.