Hail and Damaging Wind in Virginia, May 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE NEAR THE
COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FA CLR OF ANY PCPN ATTM AS (WHAT'S LEFT OF) INITIAL WV (FM ERYR
THIS MRNG) NOW OFFSHR. WRM/MODERATELY HUMID AMS IN PLC OVR THE FA
THIS AFTN. AWAITING WK SYS FM W (LEFTOVER FM OVRNGT SYS THAT
TRACKED THROUGH KY/TN) TO PTNTLLY KICK OFF AT LEAST SCTD CNVTN FOR
THE LT AFTN HRS (W) TO THE E (LTR ON IN THE EVE). ANY CNVTN THAT
DOES DVLP XPCTD TO DSPT AFT MDNGT. OTRW...A PCLDY/WRM NGT AHD.
LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUMMER PREVIEW THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS FA RMNS ALG THE SRN EDGE OF
WLYS (ALOFT). TMG OF CNVTV WX IN THIS SITUATIONS OFTEN
DIFFICULT...AND GENLY CONFINED TO AFTN/EVE HRS. ONE SUCH PSBLTY IS
LT TUE AFTN/EVE AS WK UPR LVL S/W PASSES THROUGH NRN MDATLC RGN.
THAT SYS TO PUSH A WKNG FNTL BNDRY S INTO THE FA...WHICH IS XPCTD
TO BCM STNRY INVOF SRN VA BY WED. MDLS FOR WED GENLY HV VRY LO
POPS W/ VCLDNS OR PCLDY CONDS. TEMPS WED MOST LIKELY A FEW DEGS F
LWR THAN THOSE XCPTD ON TUE DUE TO LLVL FLO BCMG MR NNE. TRANSITION
TO VRY WRM/HOT WX XPCTD BY THU AS RDG ALOFT BUILDS INVOF ERN CBRD
AND LLVL FLO TURNS MR SSWLY. ALL IN ALL...THE HIEST POPS (ALBIET
STILL AT ABT 30-40%) APRS TO BE LT ON TUE.

HI TEMPS TUE FM THE L/M80S RIGHT AT THE CST...TO 88-92F INLAND. HI
TEMPS WED IN THE 80S INLAND...70S-L80S NR THE CST. HI TEMPS THU FM
THE 80S CST TO L90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES TUE AND AGN THU WL GENLY
TOP OUT FM THE U80S TO M90S (AVGG 1-1.5 STDEV ABV NRML). NGTTM
TEMPS MNLY IN THE 60S (ARND 70F IN HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUB TROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST THRU HOLIDAY
WEEKEND KEEPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF MTS. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
EURO FOR THE ACTUAL FROPA (MON) VS SUN ON THE GFS. EXPECT TO SEE A
CONTNUATION OF ABV NRML TMPS WITH CHC DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY. HIGHEST
POPS OVR WESTERN CNTYS CLOSER TO THE BNDRY. HIGHS FRI M-U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 W OF BAY. A BIT COOLER SAT. HIGHS M-U80S. WRMG
BACK UP TO BTWN 85-90 SUN. U80S-L90S MON. LOWS BTWN 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS CALL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THUS SOME CB AND TEMPO REMARKS WERE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS. NOTHING WAS HEADED FOR THE TAF SITES AS OF 1830Z. WILL
UPDATE AS NEEDED. S/SW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH
LATE AFTN AND CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SOME STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY AT SBY. IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON
TUE EXCEPT FOR CHC FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING TSTMS AT SBY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON TSTMS RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PATCHY
FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIKE YESTERDAY...S WINDS NEXT FEW HRS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS IN THE
CHES BAY...BUT DON'T EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE WDSPRD ENUF FOR AN SCA.
WILL HANDLE GUSTS WITH MWS IF NEED BE. BASED ON CRNT BUOY DATA...
DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS FRTHR S TO THE NC/VA BRDR
MAINLY FOR 5 FOOT SEAS OUT NR 20 NM FOR TONITE. SCA'S CONT ACROSS
NRN CSTL WTRS THRU TUE.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NRN CSTL WTRS WED...BRIEFLY TURNING
WNDS INTO A N-NW DIRECTION. OTW...WNDS STAY OR BECOME SRLY AS HIGH
PRS BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE SE COAST KEEPIMG WNDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
LEVELS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

NCZ012-VAZ048-049-060>094-242000-
NORTHAMPTON NC-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-
HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-
RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA
OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANZ654-656-242000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT TO
20 NM-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ650-652-242000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT TO 20 NM-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>634-658-242000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LITTLE CREEK TO CAPE HENRY VA...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ021>025-NCZ013>016-030>032-VAZ095>100-242000-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN SHORE
OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ017-102-242000-
INLAND CURRITUCK-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
348 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ALERT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
548 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

NCZ012-VAZ079-087-232230-
BRUNSWICK VA-GREENSVILLE VA-NORTHAMPTON NC-
548 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BARLEY...OR ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF GASBURG...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
BARLEY AT 555 PM EDT...TRIPLET AT 600 PM EDT...ANTE AT 615 PM EDT...
RADIUM AT 630 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3685 7765 3680 7751 3673 7750 3670 7746
      3663 7755 3650 7774 3657 7786