Scattered thunderstorms developed across Albermarle County in association with a surface trough. An isolated flash flood occur from this moist, unstable atmosphere.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across Albermarle County in association with a surface trough. An isolated flash flood occur from this moist, unstable atmosphere.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 9:12 AM EST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1012 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXTENSIVE CLD CVR CONTS THIS MRNG ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA...WITH ONGOING CNVCTN MOVG NEWD THRU INTERSTATE-95 CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MRNG CNVCTN...ISOLATED SHWRS WILL BE PSBL THRU RMNDR OF MRNG AS SLOW-MOVG WMFNT BCMS SLGTLY BETTER DEFINED OVER NWRN THIRD OF FCST AREA. AS UPR-LVL CLDS MOVE EWD SLOWLY TDA...MODEST HEATING ALONG ORGANIZING WMFNT MAY SUPPORT TSTM DVLPMT LATER THIS AFTN NEAR THE BLUE RDG MTNS. WEAK LAPSE RATES...INHIBITING UPR-LVL CLDS AND POOR BULK SHEAR PROFILES LKLY WILL PRECLUDE SVR WX POTENTIAL TDA. ANY TSTMS SHUD TRANSLATE SEWD THRU RMNDR OF FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE. DECRG CLD CVR AND VERY MOIST BNDRY LYR COULD LEAD TO FOG OVNGT. APART FROM OVNGT FOG...LMTD CLD CVR XPCD BY MRNG ON THU. WITH AMPLE INSOLATION...ATMOSPHERE SHUD DESTABILIZE QUITE EASILY BY AFTN. MDT INSTBY OF 1500-2500 J/KG XPCD. DESPITE ONLY MODEST MID-LVL FLOW OF ABOUT 25 KT...VERY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES UP TO H7 AND NEAR- SATURATION THRU A COMPARABLE LYR WILL LEAD TO SGFNT DCAPE AND THUS A SGFNT DMGG WIND THREAT FROM VIGOROUS CNVCTN TMW. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A DVLPG DRY LYR ALOFT WHICH ALSO COULD SUPPORT ISOLD LRG HAIL DVLPMT. MAXIMA TDA WILL BE INHIBITED BY MRNG CLD CVR...BUT SHUD REACH UPR 80S-LWR 90S. WITH MORE SUN TMW...MAXIMA MAY REACH LOW-MID 90S. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MRNG...MINIMA WILL BE ELEVATED OWING TO HIGH BNDRY LYR DEWPTS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH TEMPS HV BEEN TOPPING OUT IN U80S/LM90S DURG THE START OF JUL...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THU. CWA WL BE IN BTWN WK BNDRYS...W/ DWPTS IN U60S/L70S. W/ THIS LO LVL MOISTURE ISOLD CNVCTN WL BE PSBL DURG THE AFTN...HOWEVER SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW TO NON EXISTENT W/ NO UPR LVL WIND FIELD TO SPEAK OF. HIGH PRES OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WL BUILD INTO NY STATE THU NGT...ALLOWING A WK CD FNT TO DRAW CLOSER TO THE MID ATLC RGN...WHICH WL BRING THE CHC FOR CNVCTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. BOTH MAV AND MET HV LKLY POPS BOTH THU NGT AND FRI. WE'VE DONE STUDIES VERIFYING MDL (AND OUR) POP FCSTS DURG ALL TIMES OF THE YR...AND DURG SUMMER GFS 24-48 HR 60-70 POPS VERIFY 5-10% LESS..WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON (ALONG W/ SUMMER CNVCTN IS GNRLY SPOTTIER THAN IN THE COOLER TIMES OF THE YR) WHY I'VE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MDL TRACKING A LOW PRES AREA UP THE E CST FRI AND AM DISCOUNTING. AS MENTIONED ABV...HIGH PRES XPCTD TO TRACK ACROSS THE NERN U.S. ON FRI W/ BNDRY CAUGHT UP IN THE MID ATLC STATES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORMS...WHILE M CLDY SKIES WL KEEP TEMPS BLO 90. LK THU NGT WL INCRS POPS BUT HOLD AT HIGH CHC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... IT LOOKS LK THE HIGH TO THE N SHOULD COME MORE INTO PLAY FOR OUR AREA AS THE WKND PROGRESSES. BY SUNDAY SKIES SHOULD BE M SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS ARND 90 - NEAR CLIMO NORMS. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF DECAYING MRNG CNVCTN...MAINLY MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS XPCD AT TERMINALS. WMFNT WILL BCM BETTER DEFINED VCTY KMRB THIS AFTN AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION. BUT WEAK INSTBY AND SHEAR WILL NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN. MVFR FOG XPCD OVNGT IN TYPICAL SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LMTD IFR VSBYS AT SOME TERMINALS LATE TNGT...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN ATTM. FCST WILL BE REFINED BY THIS AFTN. TSTMS XPCD TO FORM ALONG WMFNT ON THU NEAR BLUE RDG MTNS. MDT INSTBY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A SVR WX THREAT OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD LRG HAIL. STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO TURBULENCE AT ALL TERMINALS. CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN AND EVE HRS FRI AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE AREA. HIPRES BUILDS DURG THE WKEND. && .MARINE... LGT SLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT XPCD TDA AND TMW...BUT COULD BE SLGTLY HIGHER IN ANY SHWRS AND TSTMS. BEST CHC FOR SGFNT WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN ANY TSTMS THU AFTN-EVE...WHEN SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD BECOME NECESSARY. IN THE XTND WINDS LOOK TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THU THRU SUN. AFTN/EVE TSTSM ARE PSBL THU AND FRI. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && UPDATE...KRAMAR PREV DISCUSSION...WOODY!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1233 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 071000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 1233 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-071000- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 1233 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 132 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported near the intersection of Stony Point Road and Key West Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 337376.