Wildfire in Texas, May 10, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DONLEY...COLLINGSWORTH...WHEELER...
AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE DRYLINE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 50 TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS. RED FLAG
WARNING CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HAVE CANCELLED THE WARNING. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT CONTINUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE HAS IT RETREATS TO THE WEST AND MAY BE
ABLE TO CANCEL SOME IT EARLY. ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011/

AVIATION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS CYCLE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE IS KEEPING WINDS
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY AT KGUY AND
KDHT. NONETHELESS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY AT KAMA. KEPT THE AWW THROUGH 2Z AS A
COUPLE OF GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SOME AFTER 2Z...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT.
DRYLINE WILL PUSH WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS CYCLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT MIXED AS FAR TO
THE EAST AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IT REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOCATED. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS
TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST ALONG WITH INTRODUCE POPS AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BEAVER OK TO CLARENDON TX. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER DEWPOINT RESIDE.

UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS OUT. WILL BE TAKING A LOOK AT FIRE WX
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

TAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011/

AVIATION...
12 UTC TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AGAIN CENTERS ON WINDS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER WINDS REALLY
STEP UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG DAYTIME MIXING TAPS IN THE
40-45 KT FLOW AROUND H85. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE AND ISSUED AN
AVIATION WX WARNING FOR KAMA FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM CDT. THE SURFACE
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX TO AROUND 14 KTS AT
KDHT/KGUY BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT KAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011/

DISCUSSION...
WINDY AND WARM WX TO CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SFC PRESSURES
FALL ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP SHOP IN WRN OK LATER TODAY AND WED. WINDS MAY APPRAOCH WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT
LIKE YESTERDAY...HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ON THIS PCKG DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER CRITERIA CAN BE MAINTAINED AND WHERE THIS MAY
OCCUR. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WIND ADVISORY LEVELS MAY ALSO
BE REACHED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PLOW THRU FCST AREA WED EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. TX AND OK PNHDLS WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
PRECIP CHCS BEST AT LOCATIONS N AND E OF OUR FCST AREA...AND HAVE
RETAINED A DRY FCST THRU WED NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT. ALL SUGGEST OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TO EVOLVE FROM THURSDAY THRU AT LEAST THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY WITH SOME SLOW PROGRESSION EWD TO THIS PATTERN AFTER THIS 7
DAY TIME FRAME. SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE RIDGE
PORTION OF THIS BLOCK. GFS CRANKS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE
ECMWF DO NOT. CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS...
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY EXTENDED FCST AS INHERITED UNTIL THIS FCSTR HAS
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN PROSPECTS.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDTIIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG...
EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WHICH PRECLUDES
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

13/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
107 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-102100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
107 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT
FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 8 TO 15
PERCENT ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REQUIRE BOATERS TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS GUSTY...DRY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO
35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

JACKSON