Most counties in the region received less than an inch of rain during the month and drought conditions continued to worsen. Many locations started the month in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate (D1) drought and ended the month in severe (D2) or extreme (D3) drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Most counties in the region received less than an inch of rain during the month and drought conditions continued to worsen. Many locations started the month in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate (D1) drought and ended the month in severe (D2) or extreme (D3) drought. In north Texas, the drought was the worst in the southern and eastern counties. At the end of the month, 40 of the 46 counties in north Texas were experiencing at least severe drought (D2) conditions and 26 counties had burn bans in effect.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 11:47 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1147 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON AT METROPLEX TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER KACT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE LATE MORNING HRS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BUILD OVER ALL NORTH TX TAF SITES AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY. TONIGHT...VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW. MONDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AT KACT IN THE AM. MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS. CAVANAUGH && .UPDATE... UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND NO NEW ZFP WILL BE ISSUED. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011/ NOT NEARLY AS COLD TONIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RUNNING 20 TO 25 MPH BY NOON...BUT LIKELY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND IT APPEARS SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/INVADE LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD HIGHS DOWN A BIT...BUT MORE SUN IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES. MIN RH/WIND GETS CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FAR WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL DEFER ANY ADVISORIES TO NEXT SHIFT SINCE IT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL NOW. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND BY TUESDAY MORNING STRENGTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF I-35. ANY RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT STRATUS WILL ERODE MORE SLOWLY AND THUS LIMIT SBCAPE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. GENERALLY AXIS OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG BECOMES ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-35. MODELS SHOWING USUAL BIAS IN DRYLINE PLACEMENT WITH NAM SLOWER/FARTHEST WEST AND GFS/SREF FASTER/FATHER EAST...BUT PREFER NAM FORECASTS AS IT SEEMS TO VERIFY BEST IN THIS SITUATION. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THUS THE CAP WILL BE A PRIMARY PLAYER IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE HERE. WHILE NO MODEL COMPLETELY ERODES CINH OVER NORTH TEXAS /AND EVEN THE NAM DEVELOPS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION/...DRYLINE SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED WITH LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATIVE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. CAP SHOULD BE BREAKABLE...FIRST OCCURRING ALONG THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NORTH OF THE METROPLEX MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET...BUT THIS IS MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO INCREASING CAP STRENGTH TO THE SOUTH. THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF I-35 IN THE EARLY EVENING AND IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL FILL IN AS IT HEADS INTO BETTER MOISTURE. POPS ARE 20 PERCENT ALONG I-35 TO 50-60 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. INITIAL STORM MODE LOOKS SUPERCELLULAR AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A LOW TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST IN THIS EVENT. OTHERWISE HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ESPECIALLY AFTER STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF I-35 BEHIND THE DRYLINE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST DRY LINE WILL GET AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON HIGH TEMPS AS WELL AS RH. THUS WILL DEFER FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT WITH THE ADVANTAGE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MODELS. COLD FRONT AND BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S NW AND MID 40S SE. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWN SLOPE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS WELL. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AS A RESULT. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH THE 30S...WITH PERHAPS A FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN W AND N ZONES. THURSDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND NICE...BUT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BACK FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. A WEAK/DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED IN ON SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS SYSTEM WILL COME IN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST SEVERAL AND MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS...BUT LOW LEVELS INITIALLY LOOK TOO COOL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. TR.92 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 45 67 58 79 39 / 0 0 10 20 30 WACO, TX 41 70 59 81 42 / 0 0 10 10 20 PARIS, TX 38 65 52 70 39 / 0 0 10 40 60 DENTON, TX 43 67 57 81 37 / 0 0 10 20 20 MCKINNEY, TX 39 66 55 77 39 / 0 0 10 30 40 DALLAS, TX 45 67 58 78 40 / 0 0 10 20 30 TERRELL, TX 41 66 57 76 40 / 0 0 10 30 50 CORSICANA, TX 43 68 57 77 43 / 0 0 10 20 40 TEMPLE, TX 40 71 59 79 43 / 0 0 10 10 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 41 73 54 83 37 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && /
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 220 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071145- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 220 PM CST SUN MAR 6 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN TO MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT NOT ZERO. ON TUESDAY IN WESTERN COUNTIES...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEST OF THE DRY LINE. WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WEST WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALL BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE FIRE THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in extreme drought (D3).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in extreme drought (D3).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 294100, 294101, 294102, 294103, 294104, 294105.