Wildfire in Texas, March 4, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

.AVIATION...
NLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN
TDA.  SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NWRN PART OF FCST AREA
BEFORE 00Z SAT...CAUSING CIGS TO BEGIN LOWERING AND SHOWERS TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS EVE WITH MVFR
VSBYS BEGINNING AROUND 01Z AT DHT AND AROUND 03Z IN AMA.  GUY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY LOWER CIGS DUE TO LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MSTR
AND TRACK OF DYNAMICS.  ISOLATED TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE IF
NECESSARY.  SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS REGION BY 12Z SAT...WITH CLEAR SKY
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 5233 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011/

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AMA TAF SITE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BREAK
OUT AROUND THE DHT TAF SITE. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...PROBABLY REACHING THE AMA TAF SITE AFTER
00Z. A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GUY TAF SITE THIS
EVENING...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS DHT AND AMA. A
THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ANY TAF SITE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. SOME
OF THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT BELIEVE THE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE...SO WILL LEAVE SNOW OUT AT THIS
TIME. LOWEST CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE FOUND AT THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGED
CONSIDERABLY.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE WEST
PANHANDLES AND ADD THUNDER MENTION IN THESE AREAS.

AT 445 AM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...DRY CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NEAR PERRYTON TO THE
MID 50S NEAR PALO DURO CANYON. A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS SURFACE WINDS HAD SHIFTED TO THE NORTH.

THROUGH 2 PM TODAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 30S. MORE SUN CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH.
ACCEPTED 00Z MAVMOS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY.

BETWEEN 2 PM AND 2 AM...LATEST MODELS INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER QPF/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST PANHANDLES...MAINLY
WEST OF GUYMON TO BORGER TO CLARENDON LINE. INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THESE AREAS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 60 PERCENT...WEST OF A DALHART
TO AMARILLO LINE. THINK THE LATEST NAM RUNS HANDLED QPF AND TIMING
BEST...SO CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE WEST PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS LATEST MODELS INDICATED MUCAPE UP TO 300 J/KG AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-25C. SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH DRY LEVELS ENHANCING GUST POTENTIAL. NOT TO MENTION...VERY LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...5000 FT AGL AND LOWER...MAY SUPPORT SMALL
HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS ALL
RAIN BEFORE 9 PM. AFTER 9 PM....THINK THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW AS LOW LEVELS COOL. MOST LATEST MODELS KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SURFACE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...AM A BIT
SKEPTICAL THAT PRECIPITATION STAYS ALL RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OCCURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BETTER DYNAMIC COOLING.
THUS...KEPT A RAIN/SNOW MIX 9 PM TO 2 PM IN MOST AREAS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GENERALLY THINK MOST AREAS IN THE WEST
PANHANDLES WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.25 INCH OF RAINFALL...BUT DUE TO
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY UP TO 0.75 INCH AS HINTED BY THE LATEST NAM12
MODEL RUNS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WENT WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH WEST
OF A DALHART TO AMARILLO LINE...THOUGH IF DYNAMIC COOLING COULD
OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE...CENTERED PROBABLY JUST WEST OF AMARILLO ACROSS OLDHAM AND
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. ON THE OTHER HAND...WARMER LOW LEVELS MAY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN AS MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE AFTER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DEFINITELY
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT...DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE COLDER 00Z MAVMOS LOWS
THINKING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE RATHER STRONG DUE TO NORTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY...SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. ACCEPTED 00Z
MAVMOS HIGHS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD REACH THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS FRAME IS NOT THE HIGHEST.
STILL CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH DRY SLOT AND
STRONG MID/UPPER CORE OF WINDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTICED SOME
OF THE LATEST MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GEM AND 06Z NAM SUGGESTED THAT A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA MUCH EARLIER...AS EARLY AS
MONDAY...AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MAY PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL ON SATURDAY...BUT LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.

ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES AS WINDS INCREASE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN LOW. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TUESDAY HAVING THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE SOUTH TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MBS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
929 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

CORRECTED SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-042300-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
929 AM CST FRI MAR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH AND CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WITH WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY.

COCKRELL