Most counties in the region received less than an inch of rain during the month and drought conditions continued to worsen. Many locations started the month in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate (D1) drought and ended the month in severe (D2) or extreme (D3) drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Most counties in the region received less than an inch of rain during the month and drought conditions continued to worsen. Many locations started the month in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate (D1) drought and ended the month in severe (D2) or extreme (D3) drought. In north Texas, the drought was the worst in the southern and eastern counties. At the end of the month, 40 of the 46 counties in north Texas were experiencing at least severe drought (D2) conditions and 26 counties had burn bans in effect.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 10:21 PM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1121 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011 .UPDATE... HAVE REDUCED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT AS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT UP TO PARE WITH EXPECTATIONS. STILL HAVE SOME HIGH POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST QUARTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK...BUT HAVE DECREASED THEM ELSEWHERE. NEW GRIDS SENT...ZFP OUT SHORTLY. 75 && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED NEAR A SHERMAN...STEPHENVILLE...BROWNWOOD LINE AS OF 04Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS HAVE PLACED P6SM -SHRA AND VCTS IN THE METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 06-09Z PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE CEILINGS WILL HOLD IN THROUGH 17Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY 15Z MONDAY AND THESE WILL WILL NOT DECREASE UNTIL TOWARD SUNSET MONDAY. 58 && .PREV UPDATE... .UPDATE... WV LOOP SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A SHORT WAVE PRESENT THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS. LIFT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE LOTS OF CONVECTION HAS TAKEN OFF DURING THE LAST HOUR. THE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM WEST OF GAINESVILLE TO POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND ABILENE. STORMS SHOULD BACK BUILD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EASTWARD OF THE METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR EVENING SOUNDING STILL HAS A CAP...BUT ITS WEAK AND THERE IS UPWARD OF 1800 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE IT AND A 700-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. STILL THINK A FEW CELLS WILL BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL LATER TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. EXPECTED THE CONVECTION TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDDAY. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011/ 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CO WITH MEAGER H500 HEIGHT FALLS OF 3 DM EXTENDING OFF TO ITS SOUTHEAST. RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED OVER ALL OF NORTH TX WITH A 22 DEG C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM H700 TO H500 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE 12Z FWD UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A MARKED INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE SFC TO H900 LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUED THE STEADY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WITH 20Z DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CO AND THE EFFECT OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT COULD BE SEEN AS A BAND OF MOISTENING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC LOW HAD LARGELY REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW HOLDING NEAR NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST THRU EASTERN OK AND THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THRU THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REGARDING TSTM CHANCES OVER NORTH TX IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO HELP ERODE THE CAP AFTER SUNSET. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CAP IS MOST LIKELY TO BE ERODED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITH DECREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE APPARENT INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ALL THE WAY THRU THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT FORECAST TIME...HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE CAP WILL BE ABLE TO BE ERODED FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. WITH THE CAP WEAKENED THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BOTH MECHANISMS APPEAR TO COME TOGETHER IN THE 03 TO 09Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS NORTH TX. WITH THIS IN MIND THINK THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE RED RIVER RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH THE BEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. DID NOT INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BUT DID SPREAD THE LIKELY /GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT/ POPS FURTHER SOUTHWEST THRU THE METROPLEX AS A RESULT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CONSENSUS MOST UNSTABLE AIR PARCEL LIFTED FROM AROUND THE H850 LEVEL ALL ACROSS THE CWA. ELEVATED CAPE RANGES ANYWHERE FROM AROUND 500 TO 1500 J/KG BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE 09Z SREF. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX...ASSUMING TSTMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...THINK THAT TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL. TSTM MODE WILL LIKELY TEND TO BE QUASI-LINEAR IN NATURE AS HODOGRAPH/SHEAR PROFILES IN THE 1-6 KM LAYER ARE LARGELY LINEAR IN NATURE. THE 0-1 KM LAYER DOES HAVE A CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPH SHAPE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE AIR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER APPEARS TO BE TOO NEGATIVELY BUOYANT TO BE INGESTED INTO STORMS AND THEREFORE SHOULD PROBABLY NOT BE CONSIDERED AS AIDING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ITS DIFFICULT TO EVER RULE OUT A MICROBURST. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL LINGER TOO FAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THEREFORE HAVE QUICKLY MOVED PRECIP CHANCES SOUTHEAST THRU THE CWA WITH ALL PRECIP LIKELY ENDING IN NORTH TX BY THE LATE MORNING HRS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY DESPITE CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... IN GENERAL MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED INTO NORTH TX. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME PATCHY FROST TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DO NOT THINK FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ON TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BEE TOO DRY TO WARRANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BY LATE ON WEDNESDAY A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ADVECT OUT OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ENVIRONMENT TO ANY TSTM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE A DAILY INSURGENCE OF MORNING STRATUS WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MOISTURE BENEATH THIS MID LVL CAP. HOWEVER EACH DAY THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON HRS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TX BY LATE THIS WEEK. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 52 62 38 70 53 / 30 5 0 10 5 WACO, TX 51 69 37 70 54 / 20 10 0 10 5 PARIS, TX 51 58 35 66 48 / 50 20 0 10 5 DENTON, TX 45 61 36 70 48 / 20 5 0 10 5 MCKINNEY, TX 49 60 33 68 47 / 40 5 0 10 5 DALLAS, TX 51 63 40 69 56 / 30 5 0 10 5 TERRELL, TX 50 59 36 68 49 / 40 10 0 10 5 CORSICANA, TX 53 64 38 69 54 / 30 20 0 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 56 69 38 71 56 / 10 20 0 10 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 44 67 37 73 53 / 10 5 0 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && /
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1201 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141815- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 1201 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING. DUNN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month in moderate drought (D1). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month with only abnormally dry conditions (D0). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
According to the US Drought Monitor, the county started the month with only abnormally dry conditions (D0). With little to no rainfall, drought conditions worsened and the southeastern half of the county ended the month in severe drought (D2).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 294106, 294107, 294108.