Wildfire in Texas, February 27 to 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.UPDATE...
THE VERY GUSTY AND DRY SWLY WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE OVER WEST TX
HAVE KICKED UP A GOOD DUST PLUME THAT HAS REACHED A CHILDRESS...
ABILENE...BALLINGER LINE WITH MAIN ADVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
WITH SLOW TREND EWD WITH WHOLE PLUME TO THE EAST ABOUT 20-25 MPH.
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING
WEST OF A BOWIE...MINERAL WELLS...STEPHENVILLE LINE. THE BLOWING
DUST JUST SHOWS THE INTENSITY AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM
AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/
VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING EWD ACROSS
AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONG 130-150 KT UPPER JET MOVES OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...DRYLINE NOW NUDGING
EAST INTO AREAS WEST OF A JACKSBORO TO MINERAL WELLS LINE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CHECK OF ACARS DATA FROM COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT THROUGH
18Z...RAPID-UPDATE RUC AND NAM12 DATA AND 4 KM WRF MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE EML/CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 03Z-05Z/MID-LATE EVENING WHEN
LARGE-SCALE LIFT FINALLY JUXTAPOSES OVER THE TOP OF THE DRYLINE. AT
THAT TIME...CAP WILL RISE AND MOISTEN EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING IN MOIST SECTOR OVER EASTERN COUNTIES. 60-70 KT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND 30-40 KT W/SWLY 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR WILL LEND TO
POSSIBLE LINEAR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM...TERRELL...ATHENS LINE BY OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH
UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT DRYLINE POSITION AT THIS TIME...HAVE INCLUDED
THE D/FW METROPLEX AND WACO AREAS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK AREA WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF SPC PROJECTIONS. IN
ESSENCE...WITH MODEST INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY REACH
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

DRYLINE PROJECTS TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NORTH TX BY 3 AM MONDAY
MORNING...ENDING THE SEVERE WX THREAT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WE HAVE HELD THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL FOR WESTERN NORTH TX/REFER TO ADVISORY
LINE BELOW OR OUR WEB PAGE FOR DETAILS/. MORE FIRE WEATHER AND WIND
ISSUES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW FUTURE FORECASTS TO
HANDLE ANY EXTENSIONS/ADJUSTMENTS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY...HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S...SO IT'LL FEEL COOL.

ZONAL FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL LEND TO A QUIET EARLY-MID WEEK PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS TIME AS
S/SE WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION TUES-FRI...BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
BACK UP INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
NORTH TX FOR NOW WITH SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. LOOK FOR COOLER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  62  36  69  44 /  20   0   0   5   0
WACO, TX              49  66  35  68  41 /  20   0   5   5   0
PARIS, TX             46  61  35  66  38 /  50   0   0   5   0
DENTON, TX            44  61  32  69  40 /  20   0   0   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          45  63  31  67  38 /  30   0   0   5   0
DALLAS, TX            47  64  40  68  45 /  20   0   0   5   0
TERRELL, TX           47  62  36  67  40 /  40   0   0   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         48  64  39  67  42 /  30   0   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            46  68  35  69  41 /  10   0   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     43  67  33  72  39 /   5   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ100-101-115-
116-129-130-141>143.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141>145-156>159.

&&

 /05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-281200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
239 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 3 AM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF A BONHAM TO CANTON LINE.

A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
BEHIND IT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF A
BRIDGEPORT...MINERAL WELLS...HAMILTON LINE WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF A
SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO TEMPLE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED BETWEEN 9 PM THIS EVENING AND
3 AM MONDAY MORNING EAST OF I-35