Wildfire in Texas, February 27, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1208 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.AVIATION...
HIGH WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY. A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE AMA TERMINAL. THE
AVIATION WEATHER WARNING FOR KAMA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8PM THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT AMA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AROUND 02Z/03Z AT GUY/DHT AND AROUND 05Z
AT AMA. SMALL THREAT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT BUT HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED FEW 2000/3000 ATTM. THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

TAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

..EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
DELAYED ONSET OF STRONG WINDS ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ALSO...INCREASED TEMPERATURES TODAY.

DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 2 PM. AS OF 10 AM...THEY HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. EXPECT THIS TREND TO PUSH EAST AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

THINK CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...
SO WILL NOT ALTER FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
BELIEVE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 1130 AM AND 4 PM
OVER THE WEST PANHANDLES...AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 6 PM OVER THE
EAST PANHANDLES. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGH WIND
WARNING AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DALHART TO WHEELER LINE...
INCLUDING AMARILLO.

INCREASED HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS
TEMPERATURES WERE QUICKLY WARMING UP AS OF 10 AM. THINK THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO LOWER 80S IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE STEADY IF NOT FALL A FEW DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST
PANHANDLES.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM AS WINDS INCREASE...TEMPERATURES
INCREASE...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FALL. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
SITUATION.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

AVIATION...
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FIRST 12 TO 15 HOURS OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET.
OVERALL HIGHEST WINDS FCST AT KAMA. SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...NO PRECIPITATION IS FCST DUE TO DRY ATMOSPHERE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE TODAY PERIOD.
PROFILER AT TCC ALREADY SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS DEEPENING TO
WITHIN THE FIRST 2 KM OF THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CA BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY MAKE ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 12Z. MODELS ARE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
TRACKS OF BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA AS IT
FILLS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLES BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z...AND BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY
06Z. LATEST RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DUE TO THIS...EXPANDED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ALSO
INCLUDED DALLAM AND HARTLEY COUNTIES IN THE NW TX PANHANDLE. WHILE
THE NW MAY NOT SEE THE SUSTAINED HIGH WIND CRITERIA...WITH THE 700 MB
JET AT 18Z BISECTING THE TX PANHANDLE...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW
TX PANHANDLE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE REST OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES TO SEE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA. THEREFORE...KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. ADDED IN
MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST TO GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS UNDER HIGH
WIND WARNING. THINK THAT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SOILS...GENERALLY
DRY AND UN PLOWED...SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD ISSUES OF BLOWING
DUST...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS. FRONT LOOKS ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COMPARED TO TODAY IT WILL FEEL LIKE
CALM WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A VERY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS EVEN TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIG FOCUS BEYOND TODAY WILL BE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE GFS...BUT CLOSE TO
YESTERDAYS SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO AGREE
THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT IN IN HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL BE ALL
SNOW. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IT COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN.
FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE GENERALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...OF RAIN AND SNOW.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY FOR
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 10 AM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. ALSO THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY...15 TO 25 MPH...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
153 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-280800-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
153 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...DRY FUELS...AND FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING.

A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLES AS THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A
MILE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
139 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE AMARILLO          35.22N 101.72W
02/27/2011  M69 MPH          POTTER             TX   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100150

SMB