Wildfire in Texas, February 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT OUT MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WARMED TEMPS A
LITTLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND COOLED THEM SOME ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA CREATING A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPS FROM THE
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 30S NORTHEAST. ALSO HUNG ONTO SOME
PATCHY DZ ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON
PHONE CALLS TO BEAVER COUNTY. TEMPS NEAR FREEZING IN THIS AREA BUT
BELIEVE ROADWAYS AND OTHER SURFACES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FREEZING ON CONTACT...SO WILL STICK WITH DZ AND OMIT FZDZ
MENTION.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

AT KAMA AND KDHT...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST...ESPECIALLY 04-18Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THESE SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z. HOWEVER...THESE CEILINGS COULD MOVE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z...AND
POSSIBLY CREATE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS 04-18Z...WITH 10-14Z HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE LOWER CONDITIONS. FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

AT KGUY...BELIEVE CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE CREATING A
WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS 21-03Z...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST.
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER 03Z WITH POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 16Z.

GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 01Z AT ALL SITES...THEN
SLOWLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 15Z.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS ALL INSTABILITY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL CWA FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WE
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A LIGHT
SHOWER...SPRINKLES...OR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
EVIDENT ON THE 290K THETA SURFACE CONTINUES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
THREAT TO END BY MIDDAY AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE OVERTAKES THE AREA AS
THE SHORTWAVE STARTS TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA. FZDZ IS NOT FAR
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KDDC AND KGCK. BELIEVE THE FREEZING PRECIP WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE OK/KS STATE LINE...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THANKS
TO A STUBBORN FRONT...CURRENTLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

FOR KAMA...THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ONLY 10 TO 20SM NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. THROUGH THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ON ITS OWN...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST...AS
IT DOES SO...PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL HELP THE
FRONT SLIP SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS TO WHEN
THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE BEFORE
18Z. CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

KDHT AND KGUY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 TO OVC040...WILL PERSIST
OVER KGUY...AND POINTS EAST UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST LATE
THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP
TONIGHT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS GONE STATIONARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE...ROUGHLY FROM JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF KDHT TO BETWEEN
KBGD AND KAMA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO BETWEEN
WELLINGTON AND WHEELER TX. SFC DEW POINT AT KAMA WENT FROM ABOUT 44
DEG AT 06Z TO ABOUT 17 AND 20 DEG WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...SO WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR CONVECTION BACK INTO THE GRIDS. NARROW BAND OF RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KPPA SOUTH TO AROUND CLARENDON WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG...AND LOWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OCCURRING ATTM. FURTHER
OFF THE CAPROCK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE AS EVIDENCED
AT KHHF WITH HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVE PAST KAMA BEFORE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY OR RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ALONG WITH WINDS. ANY CONVECTION THIS MORNING
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAVE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND SHOULD
BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...MUCH
LIKE TODAY...THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AT KAMA COULD BE IN THE 50S OR
NEAR 70 DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP.

STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO AND SOUTHWEST KS. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE PANHANDLES DRY SLOTTED BY
THIS UPPER SYSTEM. FEEL INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN AT LEAST THE WINDY
CATEGORY AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY
AND DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNCERTAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE DUE TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUD COVER. RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING TODAY DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN RH VALUES AND WIND
SPEEDS...BUT MAY OPT TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT INSTEAD. THE
SAME MAY BE TRUE FOR FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY GO WITH ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ON FRIDAY PROVIDING WIND SPEEDS AND RH VALUES MEET
CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE INCREASING ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AND WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO GIVE THE FIRE WEATHER CUSTOMERS AS MUCH ADVANCED
NOTICE AS POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

17/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
830 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-250230-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
830 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BREEZY CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INCLUDING AMARILLO...
VEGA...HEREFORD...CANYON...CLAUDE...AND CLARENDON THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...BOATERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MBS