Windy and dry conditions combined with plentiful and very dry fuels resulted in wildfires across West Central Texas.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
Windy and dry conditions combined with plentiful and very dry fuels resulted in wildfires across West Central Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 5:37 PM CST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 537 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2011 .DISCUSSION... SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 12 KTS OR LESS AT THE TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT AT 35 KTS OR SO BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY IMPACT LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM KSJT TO KABI. STRONGER DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT IN THIS PORTION OF THE CWA DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS AFTER 06Z. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LOW END MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KJCT/KBBD WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE AT KSJT. I WAS ON THE FENCE AS TO WHETHER TO INCLUDE CIGS AT KABI AFTER 12Z BUT I DECIDED TO GO WITH A SCATTERED GROUP FOR NOW AND WATCH THE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS OF 14-16 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS AT TIMES. JOHNSON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2011/ SHORT TERM... TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. PER THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...THE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WILL BE MORE EXPANSIVE THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BREAKUP WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LONGER DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH WITH THE SPEEDS A LITTLE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WITH A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY AND NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...THEN LIFTS IT NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS STILL PRODUCES SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SUPPORT. STILL MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE RETAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST DAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AROUND...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE DESSERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT FORECAST DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AS BULK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL EASE DURING THE EVENING...WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. ON WEDNESDAY... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY...BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY HOWEVER...WHERE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY... NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY. ONE FACTOR WHICH MAY KEEP CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FROM BEING MET IS THAT THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE AIR BECOMES DRY ENOUGH FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE REACHED...THE WIND SPEEDS BY THAT TIME WILL BE STARTING TO DECREASE. THIS RED FLAG POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ON FRIDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FRONT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 50 79 53 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 48 82 52 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 50 77 54 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 25
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 310 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2011 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-162115- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 310 PM CST TUE FEB 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL EASE DURING THE EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY...NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHWEST CROCKETT COUNTY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
This wildfire originated after a controlled burn went out of control. Multiple agencies fought this fire that began on February 15. The wildfire burned approximately 2000 acres.
A grass and brush fire located east of U.S. Highway 87 between Graston and Harper Roads burned about 500 acres. Several neighboring fire departments assisted. The cause of the fire was believed to have been caused by the sparks associated with a tire blowout on U.S. Highway 87.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 286999, 287004.