Wildfire in Texas, August 8, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES...HAVING
ALL READY MOVED SOUTH OF THE DHT/GUY TAF SITE. FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING AMARILLO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND HAVE INTRODUCED
A WIND SHIFT AT AMA AT 20Z. BELIEVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON SO
OMITTED CB REMARKS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. VFR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

..RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY...

UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MENTION ACROSS THE EAST PANHANDLES FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WILL
MONITOR FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AT 10 AM CDT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR
BEAVER OKLAHOMA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS FRONT TO
NEAR CHANNING. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OVER LIPSCOMB COUNTY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

INCREASED HIGHS TODAY AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED INCREASING 850
MB TEMPERATURES TO +30 TO +35C ALONG WITH INCREASING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES TO +15 TO +19C. 12Z KAMA RAOB DEPICTED 1-2C WARMING
BELOW 550 MB. THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS
TODAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING NEAR 110 DEGREES AT WELLINGTON. WITH LOW
HUMIDITY...GENERALLY THINK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 105
DEGREES EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EAST PANHANDLES. WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF MEETING CRITERIA.

A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20S AND 30S. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO TAKE OFF EVEN
MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

WILL BE NEAR DAILY AND PERHAPS ALL TIME MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT AMARILLO...BORGER...AND DALHART TODAY.

ADDED 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR EAST
PANHANDLES NEAR LIPSCOMB AND HEMPHILL COUNTIES THROUGH NOON WHERE
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED. ALSO...KEPT 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BE LOCATED. A FEW
STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BE STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH THE MAIN HAZARD DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

CLIMATE...
WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS TODAY. HERE ARE THE DAILY AND ALL
TIME MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.

AMARILLO

DAILY RECORD OF 105 DEGREES SET IN 2003
ALL TIME AUGUST RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET ON AUGUST 3 1944

BORGER

DAILY RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET IN 2003
ALL TIME AUGUST RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET ON AUGUST 8 2003

DALHART

DAILY RECORD OF 100 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1962
ALL TIME AUGUST RECORD OF 106 DEGREES SET ON AUGUST 20 2007

MBS/TB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

AVIATION...
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THRU ALL TAF SITES TODAY...REACHING
NRN SITES LATE THIS MORNING...THEN KAMA AROUND LATE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR EXPECTED INITIALLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...SO ANY TSTMS THAT FORM
ARE FCST TO REMAIN E AND SE OF ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE A
HIGH BASED CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON TIL AROUND SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
NOW STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN CO AND KS. SOMEWHAT CONCERNING THAT
THE FRONT HAS NOT MADE ANY PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
PANHANDLES BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LACK OF
PROGRESS SO FAR...THE FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION
BRINGING THE FRONT IN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT IN THE NAM
SOLUTION...THE NAM IS HIGHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION THAT THE NAM
SHOWS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BY 00Z...THE NAM HAS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES. THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...AS EVIDENCED IN
THE 00Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WHERE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGED FROM 70 TO JUST BELOW 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINK THE
NAM IS EXCESSIVE WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTION. THEREFORE...KEPT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO...THOUGH STILL A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. WITH THE DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW 500
J/KG...AND CIN VALUES SHOULD INCREASE. THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS HAVE KEPT THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE
ONLY. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED NW.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
NOT ONLY DOES THIS MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES...THOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK DUE TO THE LACK OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE...BUT ALSO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO THE RELATIVE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
MEANS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION.

INTO THE EXTENDED...SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.. IT SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE THEN...THAT THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE GFS
SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...INDICATING A VERY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NOT YET CONVINCED THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP FOR A FEW REASONS.
FIRST...THE GFS SHOWS A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH A PARADE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDING GENERALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. IF WE REALLY HAVE TURNED THE CORNER AND
ARE LOOKING AT A TRANSITION OUT OF THE STUBBORN WEATHER PATTERN WE
HAVE HAD MOST OF THE SUMMER...WHY ARE THERE STILL RELATIVELY FEW
ROSSBY WAVES...INDICATING A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SECOND...THE GFS
HAS SHOWN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN MANY TIMES THIS SUMMER...ONLY TO
HAVE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOP FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO
OUR REGION...ESSENTIALLY SQUASHING OUR CHANCES FOR A WET PATTERN. THUS
HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP QUITE LOW TODAY...NEAR OR BELOW 15
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...WINDS
THOUGH NEAR 15 MPH IN THE MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD STILL BE BELOW 15 MPH BEHIND
THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

10/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
954 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-082100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
954 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS THAT FORM MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 55 MPH THE MAIN THREAT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WHEELER AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME STORMS THAT FORM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.