Wildfire in Texas, August 3, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
149 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MORE OF THE SAME
EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HOT AND PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AFTER SUNSET TO PRODUCE A RATHER SULTRY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
MOST AREAS TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST...WHICH IS PRETTY COMMON FOR
EARLY AUGUST. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZE BY MIDDAY AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S EAST TO AROUND 100 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR TO
LOW 100S FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WILL SET IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY COOLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ONCE
AGAIN. SAW NO NEED TO MODIFY THE INHERITED FORECAST AS IT HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED STATE OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THIS FCST TERM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
MOVING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND TOWARD THE WEEKEND. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE A
CONTINUED HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THEREFORE...A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM
SIDE AND FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 90S NEAR THE COAST...TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK NEAR THE MCALLEN
AREA...TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES IN THE UPPER VALLEY.  LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE 70S.  DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRIER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES OVER THIS AREA A LITTLE LOWER. HEAT INDICES OVERALL SHOULD
RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE LOWER
VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA DESPITE THE
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM
BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 2 FT
WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. NO SIGNS OF ANY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OFFERING A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS WILL BE THE GENERAL STATE OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE STRONGER
BREEZE SEEN TODAY ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND THEN RETURN AGAIN BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON THURSDAY. BAY WATERS WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY CHOPPY EARLY TONIGHT BUT BECOME A LIGHT CHOP
OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE CHOP WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND
PERSIST UNTIL EVENING.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MODERATE RANGE WITH VALUES AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET EXPECTED MOST DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  95  80  92 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  96  79  92 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  99  78  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 102  78 104 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  92  81  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

TXZ248>257-032200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAT: AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND
HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND
BRUSH COUNTRY...AND 105 TO 110 ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY INCLUDING
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE BEACHES...THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX WILL REMAIN ABOVE 90 UNTIL MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY...INCLUDING
REMAINING HYDRATED...WORKING OR EXERCISING OUTDOORS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...AND WEARING LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHING. REMEMBER TO CHECK YOUR VEHICLE FOR PETS OR CHILDREN
AFTER PARKING...AND LOCK ALL DOORS ONCE EVERYONE HAS EXITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT: AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND
HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND
BRUSH COUNTRY...AND 105 TO 110 ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY INCLUDING
THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR TOWARD THE BEACHES...EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX WILL REMAIN ABOVE 90 UNTIL MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-032200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
410 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

52/BSG