Wildfire in Texas, April 16 to 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED ACROSS EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN A
FIRM PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LLJ BY MIDNIGHT LIKELY
REINFORCING SMOKE INTO THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM FIRES...HOWEVER
THE DEGREE TO WHICH VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED IS NOT AS CLEAR
CONSIDERING WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS. AM
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THIS WILL DETER SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
SETTLING THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO WILL OMIT MENTION OF
SMOKE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY
FLATTENING BUT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME RESISTANCE ON SUNDAY AS A SHALLOW
S/W TROF EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO NUDGE A
BROAD LEE TROUGH OUT OF ERN NM SUN AFTERNOON FURTHER VEERING OUR SLY
WINDS TO THE WSW. GIVEN THE PARCHED AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
OF WINDS THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD EASILY
SOAR ABOVE TODAY/S SEASONAL LEVELS WITHIN A BURGEONING LL THERMAL
RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER REMAIN THE CONCERN THIS PERIOD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY...AND
EJECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASINGLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE UA TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS...WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST 25-30KT WINDS EACH DAY...SO WIND/DUST HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
PASSING SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A TEMPORARY BREAK WITH
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST AIR CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DRYLINE
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. MODELS
DO HINT AT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...
BUT SIMILAR TRENDS THIS SEASON HAVE THUS FAR HAVE NOT VERIFIED.
THUS ATTM...WILL NOT YET INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH 20 FOOT WINDS HAVE RECENTLY
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 MPH...WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING
AREAWIDE GIVEN GUSTS ARE ROUTINELY PEAKING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH.
THIS ALONG WITH RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT HAS ALREADY PROMOTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW FIRES WELL AWAY FROM THE LONG-STANDING FIRES IN
THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS DECOUPLING
NEAR SUNSET...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN TURN
WESTERLY BY SUNDAY AND HELP PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SECURING
WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW TODAY/S VALUES AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE
ADDRESSED WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER/
DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
PROGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHARPENING OVER
WEST TEXAS MONDAY...AS MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENTS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. MODELS SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF
SINGLE DIGIT RH/UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND 20-30KT WINDS.
WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY TUESDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 30+KT
AS THE PARENT UA SYSTEM EJECTS...AND AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  87  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  90  52  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  90  52  92  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  91  53  92  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  91  54  93  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  92  54  93  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     44  90  55  95  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          45  91  55  96  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  91  60  97  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

93/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

TXZ021>044-172115-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
403 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AROUND SUNSET AS WINDS DIMINISH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
DEEPENING DROUGHT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE SUSTAINED AT OVER
30 MPH EACH OF THOSE DAYS.