Heat in Oregon, August 1, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1030 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.UPDATE...ISOLD TSRA MOVED INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES AND THIS
AREA OF PCPN WAS SLOWING MOVG NE. LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER 20Z LCL CB ARE POSSIBLE NEARING TAF
SITES KPDT...KALW...KRDM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TROUGH OFFSHORE AND A RIDGE TO OUR
EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY SUNNY AND
FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER MONSOON MOISTURE GETS CARRIED NORTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS
EVENING MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY FROM THE EAST SLOPE OF THE CASCADES
THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON AS FAR NORTH AS BEND THEN EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST OREGON. THE NAM SHOWS A DISTURBANCE NEAR RENO SWINGING
NORTH AND ARRIVING IN THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AROUND SUNDOWN
THEN MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA INTO WALLOWA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH IT SO HAVE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AM NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BLUES AS FURTHER SOUTH
BUT COULD NOT RULE IT OUT. MODELS WERE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND BEND AND LA PINE BUT THE INSTABILITY IS THERE
AND A CUMULUS FIELD IS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT AREA SO
HAVE KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO DESCHUTES COUNTY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A DECENT BLOB OF MOISTURE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS MADRAS
AND EAST THROUGH THE BLUE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER SOUTH FROM LA PINE THROUGH THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS
INTO WALLOWA COUNTY. HAVE LEFT THAT LARGELY UNCHANGED. THESE STORMS
DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF SHEAR ALOFT SO THEY SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE
LEVELS. THEY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND THEY
DO NOT LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING STORMS. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN AND PROGRESS EASTWARD AND
LAST PAST MIDNIGHT FROM THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD.

THE PATTERN REPEATS ON TUESDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS IT. THERE WILL BE A MARINE PUSH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS REACHING 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND GORGE AS WELL
AS THE KITTITAS VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN FROM CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS THOUGH IT MAY START A LITTLE EARLIER AND END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER THAN THIS EVENING OR
MONDAY EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN SOME MODELS AND PRESENT IN OTHERS.
HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERRY

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GENERALLY SPEAKING...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WOULD IMPLY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE 500MB HEIGHTS AND MINIMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.  THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL. EARLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  56  89  58  89 /   0  10  10  10
ALW  60  89  62  90 /   0  10  10  10
PSC  58  91  59  92 /   0   0   0  10
YKM  53  86  56  87 /   0   0   0  10
HRI  58  90  60  91 /   0  10  10  10
ELN  53  87  55  86 /  10   0   0  10
RDM  49  88  52  88 /  10  20  20  20
LGD  54  86  55  86 /  20  20  20  20
GCD  54  86  54  87 /  20  30  30  20
DLS  58  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

97/97

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
901 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

CORRECTED TO REMOVE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

ORZ041-042-044-049-050-502-503-505>509-WAZ024-026>030-520-521-
011215-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-JOHN DAY BASIN-OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES-SIMCOE HIGHLANDS-
901 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS
     WALLOWA COUNTY, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY
     BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAY FORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...IN THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE...IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WORKED ITS WAY NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ELSEWHERE DRY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
     WALLOWA COUNTY, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     EAST SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY,
     WALLOWA COUNTY, NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL USA. THIS WILL CAUSE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
ABOVE LISTED AREAS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM BUT DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE.