An active weather pattern across the Southern Plains resulted in several episodes of locally heavy rainfall over northeastern Oklahoma. This heavy rainfall resulted in moderate flooding along the Neosho River near Commerce.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TSA wrote it up.
An active weather pattern across the Southern Plains resulted in several episodes of locally heavy rainfall over northeastern Oklahoma. This heavy rainfall resulted in moderate flooding along the Neosho River near Commerce.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 23, 2:23 PM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC OUTBREAK LATE TUESDAY.
REMAINS OF MORNING MCS HAS GRADUALLY REINTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2
HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
NERN OK/NWRN AND WCNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LAYED OUT A WELL-DEFINED
MESO-HIGH ACROSS NW AR...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM S OF
FYV...ACROSS TULSA COUNTY AND THROUGH NRN OK TO A SURFACE LOW IN NW
OK. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS AT LEAST WEAKLY CAPPED SO FAR...BUT EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE TO THE W AND SW OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH SBCAPES
AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM AS DRYLINE
STORMS WORK E. ANY THUNDERSTORM INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COULD DISPLAY A DEVIANT STORM MOTION TO SE...ENHANCING THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AND
PUSH SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK/WRN AR LATER THIS EVENING.
PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR A POTENTIAL TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW...WITH A MOIST AND
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
ACROSS WRN OK BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 70-80KT WLY
MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES E INTO OK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TORNADOES...ACROSS MOST OF ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
WITH ONGOING RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OR TWO OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WILL GO AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED E...BUT STILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH THE DAY. INSERT LOW POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT
REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LEFT AS IS WITH
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 70 85 65 80 / 60 20 70 40
FSM 68 86 69 85 / 70 10 50 30
MLC 70 84 69 85 / 50 20 50 20
BVO 66 83 62 78 / 60 20 70 50
FYV 65 82 66 79 / 70 20 60 40
BYV 65 82 65 80 / 70 20 60 50
MKO 68 84 67 82 / 60 20 50 30
MIO 66 82 69 78 / 70 20 70 50
F10 68 84 68 83 / 50 20 50 30
HHW 70 86 68 87 / 30 10 40 20
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.
&&
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....18HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
..FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATER TODAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL... AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA....NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 4 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING
DISCUSSION...
TRAINING CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN HAS RESULTED IN FLASH
FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER WEST...CLOSER THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAID DOWN BY PREVIOUS
CONVECTION WILL ALSO AID AS A TRIGGER AS WELL. LOCALLY BACKED
SURFACE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE TORNADIC STORMS IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN A HIGH CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS LATER ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE ALREADY SATURATED OR
FLOODED AREAS.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A HIGH END SEVERE EVENT IS IN THE WORKS FOR TUESDAY AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS POISED TO DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
TONIGHT...AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THIS
ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. THE LIFT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE OPTIMALLY TIMED FOR PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WHICH WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND
BECOME SEVERE...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE TO
PRODUCE ORGANIZED...ROTATING STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
103 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
ARZ010-231830-
WASHINGTON AR-
103 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN WASHINGTON
AT 102 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF VINEY GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...SHADY GROVE...WALNUT GROVE...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...FARMINGTON...VINEY GROVE...WHEELER...
JOHNSON...SONORA...TONTITOWN AND OAK GROVE.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT 1252 PM WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
LAT...LON 3604 9408 3594 9444 3620 9422 3620 9394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 230DEG 22KT 3611 9410 3600 9433PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
156 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0156 PM HAIL QUAPAW 36.95N 94.79W
05/23/2011 E1.00 INCH OTTAWA OK POST OFFICE
MOSTLY DIME SIZED BUT A FEW AS BIG AS A QUARTER.
&&
KAHSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
ARZ010-019-232030-
CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
306 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
AT 306 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BRENTWOOD TO STRICKLER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BIDVILLE...WINSLOW...BLACKBURN...STRICKLER...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...
WYOLA...ARNETT AND MOUNT GAYLER.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
LAT...LON 3573 9396 3571 9397 3571 9443 3584 9438
3593 9395 3576 9396 3576 9395 3573 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 273DEG 20KT 3583 9411 3578 9433PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0314 PM FLASH FLOOD PRAIRIE GROVE 35.98N 94.32W
05/23/2011 WASHINGTON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT
FFW041 - ROADS FLOODING IN PRAIRE GROVE.
&&
GEWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0319 PM FLASH FLOOD MIAMI 36.87N 94.88W
05/23/2011 OTTAWA OK EMERGENCY MNGR
ADDITIONAL ROAD CLOSURES IN MIAMI INCLUDE ELM
STREET...11TH E NE...H NW...BJ TUNNEL...HIGHWAY 69A AT
BUFFALO RUN...5TH B SW...20TH K SW...HIGHWAY 10 AT
TURNPIKE CHRYSLER...AND TRUCK ROUTE.
&&
NMMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 E NOWATA 36.70N 95.49W
05/23/2011 NOWATA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT
MANY COUNTY ROADS FLOODED ESPECIALLY IN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF COUNTY. WATER RESCUE AT HIGHWAY 60 AND
28 IN EASTERN PART OF COUNTY.
&&
SAAThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Neosho River near Commerce rose above its flood stage of 15 feet at 3:45 pm CDT on May 23rd. The river crested at 18.95 feet at 6:00 am CDT on the 24th, resulting in moderate flooding. The river fell below flood stage at 6:45 am CDT on the 25th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, May 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 308438.