Drought in Oklahoma, August 1 to 31, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM MARSHALL TEXAS TO NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA CONTINUING TO SLIDE
SOUTH AND EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED GRIDS
TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /05/
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 02/01Z.  SURFACE WINDS LIGHT VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 01/15Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY/S ISLD CONVECTION MAY BE OUR LAST BEST CHANCE AT ANY
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS
TO REINFORCE ITSELF OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND DRIFTING OVERHEAD...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT SPELL IS UPON US. MAV/MEX NUMBERS ARE RUNNING LOW /99-102/
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS SPRING/SUMMER...BUT MET NUMBERS ARE
PUSHING 110 FOR PARTS OF E TX BY MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...HEAT
INDICES ARE PUSHING THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN SOME SPOTS TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED THIS LIMIT AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY MONDAY AFTN...DESPITE AMPLE AFTN MIXING. THAT SAID...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY...AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS THE WEEK MOVES ON. UNFORTUNATELY...
MODELS INDICATE NO REAL RELIEF IN SIGHT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE...WE MAY HAVE SOME NEW MAX TEMP RECORDS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST. /12/

AVIATION...
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT WAS NOTED TO
THE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR AND THUS...WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE ANYTHING CAN GET CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. PREVAILED VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z MON AND BEYOND TNGT...PREVAILED S TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO
8 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINAL LOCATIONS. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 104  80 105  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  80 102  79 103  79 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEQ  79 105  78 106  79 /  20  10  10   0  10
TXK  80 104  79 105  80 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  79 103  78 103  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  81 106  82 107  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  81 104  81 106  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  79 103  78 104  80 /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

05/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1122 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1122 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
ARKANSAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STRONG STORMS. MEANWHILE...A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT...AS OUR AIR TEMPERATURES RESUME TRIPLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE...AND HEAT INDEX READINGS REACH ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE
MARK. PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT AGAINST THE HEAT WILL BE NEEDED TODAY
FOR EXTENDED TIME SPENT OUTDOORS...OR IN AN INSUFFICIENTLY COOLED
BUILDING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

OTHER THAN LATE DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY...LITTLE IF
ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER
THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO HEAT UP...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT AGAINST THE HEAT WILL
BE NEEDED THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

12