Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, April 22 to 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
217 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONT CU CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR KCFV-KTUL-KSNL
ON SOUTHEAST..HIGHLY LIKELY TO BREAK CAP AND ERUPT INTO
SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  EVENING
OF STRONG / SEVERE THUNDER EASTERN OK INTO ADJACENT AR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO END UP SOUTHWEST  NORTHEAST THROUGH
THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST CORNER AR.
UPPER FLOW  NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THROUGH EASTER
WEEKEND WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MET TEXTBOOK
CLASSIC PROLONGED  WET HEAVY RAIN PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE QUASI-STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE OSCILLATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTS TEMPERATURE CHALLENGES.

THIS DROUGHT BUSTING PERIOD...AT LEAST EASTERN OK..WILL
COME AT A PRICE. ABUNDANT CAPE... AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL NOT ONLY MAKE RAIN..BUT PERIODS OF SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL.  AT THIS TIME TONIGHT...SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

WILL HOLD ON FLOOD WATCH  UNTIL AFTER THE INITIAL RAIN
TONIGHT.   PRIME HEAVY RAIN AXIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS VIA
MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BE NEAR INTERSTATE 44. FAR NORTH-
EAST OK MOST AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.
GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  66  55  67 /  70  70  80  80
FSM   64  78  63  77 /  60  70  40  60
MLC   66  75  64  76 /  60  60  50  50
BVO   55  64  52  63 /  70  60  80  80
FYV   61  72  58  72 /  70  80  60  70
BYV   60  70  57  72 /  70  80  70  80
MKO   62  71  58  72 /  80  70  80  80
MIO   56  65  54  66 /  70  70  80  80
F10   62  70  57  72 /  70  70  80  70
HHW   68  81  68  81 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
104 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
...VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE..

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

        AREA OF GREATEST RISK...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
        NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT INITIALLY
TAKE A MORE EASTWARD TRACK COMPARED TO THE MEAN FLOW WILL POSE AN
ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THESE STORMS
COULD ALSO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A FLASH FLOODING THREAT...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE PREVIOUS RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FINALLY
PUSHES IT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY FLOODING RAINS AS STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1023 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 35.95N 94.42W
04/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

&&

CKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             2 N SNOW                34.42N 95.41W
04/21/2011  E1.75 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   POST OFFICE

0226 PM     HAIL             ROGERS                  36.33N 94.12W
04/21/2011  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CKH