Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 1, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
904 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LAKE OFFSHORE OF NE OH AND NW PA THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY THAT
HAS PUSHED ONSHORE SO FAR HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND WITH
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS MOVING SOUTHEAST.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
PERSISTENT ACTIVITY.

WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TODAY SO LEFT
AFTERNOON SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
FAR NE OH AND NW PA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED WORDING WHERE NEEDED. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP A 20 POP TODAY. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP TODAY.
THINK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE WEST WILL TOP OUT JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE. IT
APPEARS THAT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE SITUATION
CHANGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
FOR THE AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLIER TIMING IN THE FORECAST WAS PERHAPS A
TAD SLOW SO HAVE SPED UP THE PRECIP A FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY LATE WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE DRY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE ETA MOS
SEEMS WAY TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM NEAR CHICAGO ON
FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES MAY END UP BEING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NW MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW MAY APPROACH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDLE LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH THE MORNING. UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO ONLY PLACED
A CB IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. TRIED PLAYING A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR WHEN VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW
3 MILES IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. GUSTS
SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN 3 OR 4 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST
LOCATIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...PATCHY MVFR BR TUESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS
IT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. IT APPEARS A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ABE/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-021100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
653 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.