Funnel Cloud in North Dakota, August 6, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NOT EVEN SEEING ANY LIGHTNING REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND RAINFALL INTENSITY HAS REALLY SLACKENED OFF. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS A RESULT. REST OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR MOST AREAS WITH DIMINISHING
RAINFALL TRENDS. WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE RAIN TO END ACROSS MN.
STILL WATCHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS ONE STRONGER ECHO OVER GRANT COUNTY.
THIS MAY BE THE LAST GASP FOR SEVERE CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST FA
WITH MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN AND SIGNS OF NORTH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST
ND.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL BE AFFECTING ALL THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
WILL PROBABLY CLEAR KFAR FIRST. CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ALONG VARIOUS SECTIONS OF THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER...AS WELL AS
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES.

RIVER FORECASTS TODAY WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT PCPN THAT HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT. SO FAR THERE ARE REALLY NO MAJOR BULLSEYES THAT WILL
CAUSE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. THE DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE AREAS MAY
HAVE PICKED UP THE MOST RAIN WITH SEVERAL PCPN REPORTS AROUND TWO
INCHES. THERE WAS ONE REPORT OF ABOUT AN INCH AND A QUARTER JUST
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. GOOD THING IT DID NOT LAST LONG AND THERE
WERE NOT TRAINING ECHOES. OTHERWISE PCPN NOW IS MORE BROAD AND
STEADY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FA REMAIN IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
00Z TONIGHT...THEREFORE PCPN PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY. UP UNTIL NOW THE MOST PCPN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM
KMOT TO KJMS TO NIAGARA. NOT A PERFECT REPRESENTATION BUT NOT TOO
BAD. IN THIS FA RADAR ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN NELSON COUNTY
WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER. HAVE NOT GOTTEN ANY
PCPN REPORTS UNDER THE RADAR ESTIMATED BULLS EYE...BUT RADAR
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD AND SUGGEST MAYBE 4 PLUS INCHES
THERE. GENERALLY IT SEEMS A BROAD INCH OR TWO HAS FALLEN IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREA MENTIONED BEFORE. RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO AREAS
RECEIVING REALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES BUT IT LOOKS MORE BROAD AND
STEADY. DESPITE THIS FACT WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE AT LEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON IN CASE ANYTHING DOES FLARE UP
RAIN RATE WISE. THE SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND VALLEY CITY GOT ONE
ROUND (JUST OVER AN INCH) EARLY THIS MORNING AND THERE IS NO
FOLLOW UP PCPN IN SIGHT YET. SEEMS THE BROAD STEADY RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN FA THRU THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT THERE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE SOUTHEAST IN A SLIGHT RISK AND
THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SFC HEATING THERE THRU THE DAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING FIRES
BACK UP IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BASIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE SET-UP IS THE SAME BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS...BUT THERE
EXIST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON WHAT AREAS
RECEIVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FARTHER NORTH
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHEREAS
THE NAM IS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND MESOSCALE DETAILS...WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ND HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES SUGGEST
ISOLATED SPOTS HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 4 INCHES SINCE LAST EVENING...
BUT MOST AREAS ARE WITHIN THE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR AREAS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

00 UTC GFS/ECMWF BRING 700 HPA TROUGH ACROSS ND TODAY AND CLOSE IT
OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY 00 UTC TONIGHT. STRONG
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE LOW...
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS TO JUST NORTH OF BEMIDJI WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PROLONGED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND OBSERVED
SOIL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-
STATE (ND/SD/MN) BORDER REGION BY 18 UTC WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. MU CAPE VALUES SURGE INTO THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF A LISBON TO FARGO TO PARK
RAPIDS LINE. CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY...
BUT WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THIS MORNING AND TIMING/PLACEMENT OF MESOSCALE FEATURES...WILL
KEEP SEVERE WORDING OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-071930-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A FEW RIVER
FORECAST POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.